1) 2004 Election - Analysis of Effects of Uncounted and Switched Vote
Revised version, greatly expanded, moved here
2) Reconciling Discrepancies: 2006 State Vote counts vs. Wikipedia
votes/Generic Trend
3) Reconciling 2006 Discrepancies:
Generic 120-Poll Trend vs. 7:07pm and FinalExit Polls
Reconciling Discrepancies: 2006 State Vote counts vs. Wikipedia
votes/Generic Trend
 TruthIsAll on Fri Dec-15-06
02:56 AM
Back to the top or main page ELECTION FRAUD NEWS
The goal of this model is to determine the percentage of votes which needed
to be switched from the Democrats to Republicans to match the 11/9 CBS News
52.7% Democratic vote share. This was far below both the pre-election 120
Generic poll trend and the Wikipedia 57.7% Democratic share. The model
assumes that Wikipedia represents the TRUE national vote.
Based on historical statistics, approximately 3% of total votes cast are
never counted. The majority (70-90%) of these votes are found in Democratic
minority districts. It follows that approximately 75% of the uncounted votes
are Democratic. The racial mix in each state is used in order to approximate
the number of uncounted votes. The assumption is that 8% of non-white votes
and 2% of white votes were not counted.
The base case analysis assumes that 7% of the recorded votes were switched.
In order to match the Wikipedia vote share (57.7D-41.8%R), and assuming that
3.16% of total votes cast were uncounted, almost one in 12 (8.5%) Democratic
votes must have been switched to the Republicans. The probability that the
CBS 52.7% recorded Democratic vote would deviate by 5% from the Wikipedia
count is 1 in 43 billion (see the sensitivity analysis table below).
Base Case Model Assumptions:
Switched: 7.00% Dem to Rep
Uncounted: 3.16% of total votes cast
Uncounted Vote Shares:
Race Share Reported Pct Unctd Total Pct Unctd
White 2.0% 62542 81.7% 1276 63819 80.7% 1.61%
Other 8.0% 14043 18.3% 1221 15264 19.3% 1.54%
Total 3.16% 76585 100% 2497 79082 100% 3.16%
Result:
Assuming a 7.0% switch rate, the Democratic TRUE vote was 56.94%.
Assuming an 8.5% rate, the TRUE vote was 57.7%, matching Wikipedia.
Base Case Summary Switched TRUE Vote
Dem 75% 40331 52.66% 1873 42204 53.37% 2.45% 2823 45027 56.94%
Rep 23% 34564 45.13% 574 35138 44.43% 0.75% -2823 32315 40.86%
Other 2% 1690 2.21% 50 1740 2.20% 2.87% 0 1740 2.20%
Total 3.16% 76585 100.0% 2497 79082 100.0% 3.16% 0 79082 100.0%
Wikipedia:
U.S. House of Representatives Election Results
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_elections%2C_2006
Party Seats........ Popular Vote
...2004 2006
Dem 202 233 +31; 39,267,916 57.7% +11.1%
Rep 232 202 -30; 28,464,092 41.8% 7.4%
Indep 1 0 -1 69,707 0.1% 0.5%
Other 0 0 0 255,876 0.4% 3.2%
Total 435 435 0 68,057,591 100% 0
Special case: FL-13 (FL certified the Republican the winner, but this
election is being disputed in court)
Probability of Discrepancy
MoE 1.50%
Prob =NORMDIST(0.5266,0.5694,0.015/1.96,TRUE)
1 in 86,082,782
Sensitivity Analysis of Democratic TRUE Vote to Switched vote
Switch Dem% Prob:1 in
5.0% 56.17% 444,121
6.0% 56.43% 2,308,702 (matches 120 Generic poll trend)
6.5% 56.68% 13,359,311
7.0% 56.94% 86,082,782 (base case)
7.5% 57.19% 617,885,835
8.0% 57.45% 4,941,793,389
8.5% 57.70% 43,247,703,725 (matches Wikipedia vote count)
U.S. House
(in thousands)
CBSNews 11/09
Reported Uncounted Switch TRUE
Total Dem GOP Other Margin Total% Dem Rep Other Dem Dem Rep Other Margin
76585 52.66% 45.13% 2.21% 7.53% 3.16% 1873 574 50 2823 56.94% 40.86% 2.20% Discrepancy
AL 579 38.7% 60.8% 0.5% -22.1% 3.7% 16 5 0.4 16 42.6% 56.8% 0.6% 7.1%
AK 202 40.1% 56.9% 3.0% -16.8% 3.7% 6 2 0.2 6 44.0% 53.0% 2.9% 7.2%
AZ 1127 42.5% 51.1% 6.4% -8.6% 2.7% 23 8 0.6 34 46.2% 47.5% 6.3% 7.1%
AR 747 60.0% 40.0% 0.0% 19.9% 3.1% 18 6 0.5 31 64.5% 35.5% 0.1% 9.7%
CA 6236 56.9% 39.8% 3.3% 17.2% 3.4% 158 53 4.2 248 61.3% 35.4% 3.3% 9.3%
CO 1371 53.1% 41.7% 5.2% 11.4% 2.6% 27 9 0.7 51 57.2% 37.7% 5.1% 8.5%
CT 1079 60.4% 39.0% 0.6% 21.4% 2.9% 23 8 0.6 46 64.9% 34.5% 0.6% 9.6%
DE 509 38.7% 57.2% 4.1% -18.5% 3.5% 13 4 0.4 14 42.5% 53.4% 4.1% 6.9%
FL 3727 40.2% 58.0% 1.8% -17.8% 3.1% 88 29 2.3 105 43.9% 54.2% 1.8% 7.0%
GA 1916 41.7% 58.3% 0.0% -16.6% 4.0% 58 19 1.5 56 45.8% 54.2% 0.1% 7.5%
HI 338 65.1% 34.9% 0.0% 30.2% 6.4% 16 5 0.4 15 69.9% 30.0% 0.1% 11.6%
ID 435 39.8% 55.9% 4.4% -16.1% 2.3% 8 3 0.2 12 43.3% 52.4% 4.3% 6.6%
IL 3127 55.4% 44.2% 0.4% 11.2% 3.2% 75 25 2.0 121 59.7% 39.8% 0.5% 9.1%
IN 1646 48.8% 49.9% 1.3% -1.1% 2.7% 33 11 0.9 56 52.8% 45.9% 1.4% 7.9%
IA 1028 47.7% 50.6% 1.8% -2.9% 2.3% 18 6 0.5 34 51.5% 46.7% 1.8% 7.6%
KS 827 43.7% 54.4% 1.9% -10.8% 2.7% 16 5 0.4 25 47.4% 50.6% 1.9% 7.2%
KY 1244 47.9% 49.0% 3.1% -1.0% 2.6% 24 8 0.6 42 51.8% 45.1% 3.1% 7.8%
LA 901 32.6% 64.4% 3.0% -31.7% 4.2% 28 9 0.7 21 36.5% 60.6% 3.0% 6.4%
ME 529 65.2% 30.4% 4.3% 34.8% 2.2% 9 3 0.2 24 69.9% 25.8% 4.3% 10.0%
MD 1344 61.6% 35.3% 3.1% 26.3% 4.1% 41 14 1.1 58 66.2% 30.8% 3.0% 10.2%
MA 1068 74.3% 18.5% 7.2% 55.7% 2.8% 22 7 0.6 56 79.3% 13.6% 7.1% 11.5%
MI 3516 51.0% 46.2% 2.8% 4.7% 3.1% 83 28 2.2 126 55.2% 42.1% 2.7% 8.4%
MN 2178 53.0% 42.5% 4.5% 10.5% 2.6% 42 14 1.1 81 57.1% 38.4% 4.5% 8.5%
MS 581 43.2% 50.8% 6.0% -7.6% 4.3% 19 6 0.5 18 47.4% 46.8% 5.9% 7.9%
MO 2050 47.1% 50.3% 2.6% -3.2% 2.9% 45 15 1.2 68 51.0% 46.4% 2.6% 7.8%
MT 805 39.0% 59.1% 1.9% -20.1% 2.5% 15 5 0.4 22 42.5% 55.6% 1.9% 6.6%
NE 586 43.9% 56.1% 0.0% -12.3% 2.5% 11 4 0.3 18 47.6% 52.4% 0.0% 7.2%
NV 573 50.1% 45.2% 4.7% 4.9% 3.0% 13 4 0.3 20 54.2% 41.2% 4.6% 8.3%
NH 402 52.0% 47.0% 1.0% 5.0% 2.2% 7 2 0.2 15 56.0% 43.0% 1.0% 8.2%
NJ 1859 51.0% 47.6% 1.3% 3.4% 3.4% 47 16 1.3 66 55.3% 43.4% 1.4% 8.5%
NM 545 55.8% 44.2% 0.0% 11.6% 2.9% 12 4 0.3 21 60.1% 39.9% 0.1% 9.0%
NY 3561 64.2% 35.6% 0.2% 28.6% 3.6% 95 32 2.5 160 68.8% 30.9% 0.3% 10.4%
NC 1842 50.8% 49.2% 0.0% 1.5% 3.6% 49 16 1.3 65 55.0% 44.9% 0.1% 8.6%
ND 433 65.6% 34.4% 0.0% 31.2% 2.5% 8 3 0.2 20 70.3% 29.7% 0.0% 10.2%
OH 3763 52.4% 47.4% 0.2% 4.9% 2.9% 82 27 2.2 138 56.5% 43.2% 0.3% 8.5%
OK 905 41.2% 57.2% 1.5% -16.0% 3.3% 22 7 0.6 26 45.0% 53.4% 1.6% 7.2%
OR 1264 56.4% 41.4% 2.2% 15.0% 2.5% 24 8 0.6 50 60.7% 37.1% 2.2% 8.9%
PA 3815 54.0% 44.7% 1.3% 9.3% 2.8% 81 27 2.2 144 58.2% 40.4% 1.3% 8.7%
RI 372 71.0% 11.3% 17.7% 59.7% 2.7% 7 2 0.2 18 75.9% 6.8% 17.3% 11.0%
SC 1072 43.5% 55.3% 1.2% -11.8% 3.9% 32 11 0.8 33 47.6% 51.2% 1.2% 7.7%
SD 667 69.1% 29.4% 1.5% 39.7% 2.7% 13 4 0.4 32 73.9% 24.5% 1.5% 10.7%
TN 1712 50.2% 46.6% 3.2% 3.7% 3.1% 40 13 1.1 60 54.4% 42.5% 3.2% 8.3%
TX 3994 44.6% 51.8% 3.6% -7.2% 3.0% 90 30 2.4 125 48.5% 48.0% 3.5% 7.5%
UT 549 42.6% 51.5% 5.8% -8.9% 2.4% 10 3 0.3 16 46.3% 48.0% 5.7% 7.0%
VT 524 53.2% 44.7% 2.1% 8.6% 2.2% 9 3 0.2 20 57.3% 40.6% 2.1% 8.4%
VA 2148 37.7% 56.8% 5.5% -19.1% 3.6% 57 19 1.5 57 41.5% 53.1% 5.4% 6.8%
WA 1309 61.3% 38.1% 0.5% 23.2% 2.9% 28 9 0.8 56 65.9% 33.6% 0.6% 9.7%
WV 446 57.8% 42.2% 0.0% 15.7% 2.3% 8 3 0.2 18 62.2% 37.8% 0.0% 9.0%
WI 1852 54.0% 45.1% 0.8% 8.9% 2.6% 36 12 1.0 70 58.2% 40.9% 0.8% 8.6%
WY 377 48.8% 49.3% 1.9% -0.5% 2.3% 7 2 0.2 13 52.7% 45.4% 1.9% 7.8%
HERE'S A COMPREHENSIVE ELECTION 2004 SITE:
POLLING DATA, ANALYSIS, DISCUSSION
and...
THE EXCEL INTERACTIVE ELECTION MODEL
http://www.truthisall.net/
Reconciling 2006 Discrepancies:
Generic 120-Poll Trend vs 7:07pm and FinalExit Polls
TruthIsAll on Thu Dec-14-06 11:40 PM
Back to the top or main page ELECTION FRAUD NEWS
There is no longer any doubt that the poll/vote discrepancies are caused by
miscounting votes. The proof is once again found in the 2006 Final National
Exit Poll which matched to the recorded vote count with the use of
fallacious weightings. As in 2004, the Democrats won the
"preliminary" 7:07pm NEP by a solid 55-43%. But the 1:00pm Final
cut the margin in half (52-46%).
The 7:07pm NEP low-balled the Democratic vote share with the use of
"How Voted in 2004" Bush/Kerry (47/45%) weights. The Final NEP
(49/43%) weights are even more outrageous; there a carbon copy of the
mathematically impossible 2004 Final Bush/Gore (43/37%). This is the best
evidence that once again the Final Exit Poll was forced to match a
fraudulent miscount. Simple logic dictates that if just one demographic
requires impossible or implausible weights and/or vote shares in order to
match the vote count, then all other demographics must as well.
Matching to the vote is nothing new; exit pollsters have been doing it long
before Bush arrived on the scene and stolen elections became the norm. In
the pre-BushCo world, matching the Final NEP to an essentially fraud-free
recorded vote made sense - until BushCo came along and stole the 2000
election, along with repeat performances in 2002 and 2004. The 2006
Democratic Tsunami overwhelmed the fraud but the Dems still
"lost" 10-15 House seats they should have won.
To derive an approximation to the TRUE vote for all demographics, the 7pm
NEP vote shares and weights were adjusted to match a 57.8-40.2% Wikipedia
Democratic vote margin. The base case assumptions were: a) 4.0% of
Democratic votes and 1.4% of Republican/other votes were uncounted and b)
7% of Democratic votes were switched to the Republicans.
The TRUE 16% Democratic margin was based on the 120-Generic poll linear
trend which was confirmed in the Wikipedia early vote count. It has always
been the case that millions of ballots, mostly Democratic, are never
counted. In this election, uncounted ballots accounted for less than half
of the total discrepancy. The major fraud factor was vote-switching at the
polling place and/or the central tabulator.
This analysis does not include the millions of disenfranchised voters
(mostly Democratic) who never got to the polls. The Generic LV pre-election
polls, as one-sided as they were, low-balled the intended Democratic vote.
The theoretical Intended Vote is given by:
IV = Recorded + Uncounted + Switched + Disenfranchised
The True Vote is given by:
TV = Recorded + Uncounted + Switched
In both the 7:07pm and Final 1:00pm Exit Polls, the results were adjusted
to obtain an estimated TRUE vote. For each demographic, switched votes were
applied to final vote shares to determine pre-switch shares. Uncounted votes
were subtracted from the 7:07pm exit poll result. Unlike the Final, the
7:07pm poll was NOT matched to the vote count. Uncounted and switched vote
shares were added in the Final since it was contaminated by implicitly
including them in matching to the vote count.
When the TOTAL exit poll vote shares did not SUM to 100%, they were
normalized to do so by adjusted them proportionately. Similarly, when the
GROSS vote shares (after adjusting for uncounted votes) did not sum to
100%, they were normalized to derive the TRUE vote share.
_____________________________________________________________________
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_elections%2C_2006
Wikipedia Summary of the November 7, 2006
United States House of Representatives election results
Party Seats........ Popular Vote
...2004 2006
Dem 202 233 +31; 39,267,916 57.7% +11.1%
Rep 232 202 -30; 28,464,092 41.8% 7.4%
Indep 1 0 -1 69,707 0.1% 0.5%
Other 0 0 0 255,876 0.4% 3.2%
Total 435 435 0 68,057,591 100% 0
Special case: FL-13 (FL certified the Republican the winner, but this
election is being disputed in court
________________________________________________________
CNN.com - Elections 2006
U.S. HOUSE NATIONAL EXIT POLL
Assumptions:
Switched 7.0% of Democratic votes
Uncounted 4.0% of Democratic votes
Uncounted 1.4% of Republican and Other
Demographic Summary
10,207 Respondents 13,251 Respondents
7:07pm 1:00pm Generic Trend
Categ Dem Rep Other Dem Rep Other Margin Dem Rep Other Margin
Vote04 55.20% 43.36% 1.44% 52.19% 45.88% 1.93% 6.31% 57.50% 41.33% 1.17% 16.17%
Gender 55.04% 43.47% 1.49% 52.55% 44.96% 2.49% 7.59% 58.04% 40.47% 1.49% 17.57%
Ra/Gen 54.81% 43.71% 1.48% 52.62% 45.51% 1.88% 7.11% 57.77% 40.23% 0.00% 17.54%
Race 55.10% 43.11% 1.79% 53.34% 44.85% 1.81% 8.49% 57.88% 41.31% 1.81% 16.57%
Age 54.89% 43.44% 1.67% 52.44% 44.92% 1.64% 7.52% 57.89% 40.44% 1.67% 17.45%
Income 55.07% 43.27% 1.66% 53.28% 44.89% 1.83% 8.39% 57.92% 40.42% 1.66% 17.50%
Educ 55.05% 43.39% 1.56% 52.95% 45.47% 1.58% 7.48% 57.86% 40.58% 1.56% 17.28%
Decided 57.16% 41.48% 1.35% 54.25% 44.24% 1.51% 10.01% 58.19% 40.45% 1.35% 17.74%
Party 54.50% 43.72% 1.78% 53.04% 45.56% 1.40% 7.48% 57.80% 40.45% 1.75% 17.35%
Ideology54.42% 43.58% 2.00% 52.53% 45.47% 2.00% 7.05% 57.34% 40.66% 2.00% 16.68%
Region 55.04% 43.54% 1.42% 52.74% 45.32% 1.94% 7.42% 57.94% 40.34% 1.94% 17.60%
Religion54.22% 43.90% 1.88% 52.64% 45.30% 2.06% 7.34% 57.50% 40.62% 1.88% 16.88%
Area 54.84% 43.40% 1.76% 52.79% 45.21% 2.00% 7.58% 57.84% 40.40% 1.76% 17.44%
Senate 55.83% 42.60% 1.57% 55.11% 43.89% 1.00% 11.23% 57.75% 40.83% 1.42% 16.92%
Mean 55.08% 43.28% 1.63% 53.03% 45.10% 1.79% 7.93% 57.80% 40.61% 1.53% 17.19%
StDev 0.69% 0.58% 0.18% 0.76% 0.52% 0.34% 1.23% 0.22% 0.32% 0.48% 0.45%
_____________________________________________________________________
10,207 Respondents 13,251 Respondents
7:07pm 1:00pm Generic Trend
VOTED2004
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX* Dem Rep Other MIX* Dem Rep Other
Kerry 45% 93% 6% 1% 43% 92% 7% 1% 50% 93% 6% 1%
Bush 47% 17% 82% 1% 49% 15% 83% 2% 45% 17% 82% 1%
Other 4% 67% 23% 10% 4% 66% 23% 11% 1% 67% 23% 10%
DNV 4% 67% 30% 3% 4% 66% 32% 2% 4% 67% 30% 3%
TOTAL 100% 55.20% 43.36% 1.44% 100% 52.19% 45.88% 1.93% TRUE 57.50% 41.33% 1.17%
Switch 3.86% -3.86% 0.00% Switch 3.65% -3.65% 0.00% Uncount -2.30% -0.58% -0.02%
Pre-Sw 59.06% 39.50% 1.44% Pre-Sw 55.84% 42.23% 1.93% Pre-Sw 55.20% 40.75% 1.15%
Uncount -2.36% -0.55% -0.02% Uncount 2.23% 0.59% 0.03% Switch -3.86% 3.86% 0.00%
Gross 56.70% 38.94% 1.42% Gross 58.08% 42.82% 1.96% Net 51.34% 44.62% 1.15%
TRUE 58.42% 40.12% 1.46% TRUE 56.47% 41.63% 1.90% Final 52.87% 45.95% 1.19%
GENDER
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other MIX* Dem Rep Other
Male 49% 53% 45% 2% 49% 50% 47% 3% 49% 56% 42% 2%
Female 51% 57% 42% 1% 51% 55% 43% 2% 51% 60% 39% 1%
TOTAL 100% 55.04% 43.47% 1.49% 100% 52.55% 44.96% 2.49% TRUE 58.04% 40.47% 1.49%
Switch 3.85% -3.85% 0.00% Switch 3.68% -3.68% 0.00% Uncount -2.32% -0.57% -0.02%
Pre-Sw 58.89% 39.62% 1.49% Pre-Sw 56.23% 41.28% 2.49% Pre-Sw 55.72% 39.90% 1.47%
Uncount -2.36% -0.55% -0.02% Uncount 2.25% 0.58% 0.03% Switch -3.90% 3.90% 0.00%
Gross 56.54% 39.06% 1.47% Gross 58.48% 41.86% 2.52% Net 51.82% 43.80% 1.47%
TRUE 58.24% 40.24% 1.51% TRUE 56.85% 40.69% 2.45% Final 53.37% 45.12% 1.51%
RACE/GENDER
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other MIX* Dem Rep Other
WM 39% 47% 51% 2% 39% 44% 53% 3% 39% 50% 48% 2%
WF 40% 51% 48% 1% 40% 49% 50% 1% 41% 54% 44% 2%
NWM 9% 76% 22% 2% 9% 75% 23% 2% 9% 79% 19% 2%
NWF 11% 79% 20% 1% 11% 78% 21% 1% 11% 82% 16% 2%
TOTAL 99% 54.26% 43.27% 1.47% 99% 52.09% 45.05% 1.86% TRUE 57.77% 40.23% 2.00%
100% 54.81% 43.71% 1.48% 100% 52.62% 45.51% 1.88%
Switch 3.84% -3.84% 0.00% Switch 3.68% -3.68% 0.00% Uncount -2.31% -0.56% -0.03%
Pre-Sw 58.64% 39.87% 1.48% Pre-Sw 56.30% 41.82% 1.88% Pre-Sw 55.46% 39.67% 1.97%
Uncount -2.35% -0.56% -0.02% Uncount 2.25% 0.59% 0.03% Switch -4.04% 4.04% 0.00%
Gross 56.30% 39.31% 1.46% Gross 58.55% 42.41% 1.91% Net 51.42% 43.71% 1.97%
TRUE 58.00% 40.50% 1.51% TRUE 56.92% 41.23% 1.85% Final 52.95% 45.02% 2.03%
RACE
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX* Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
White 80% 49% 49% 2% 79% 47% 51% 2% 80% 51% 47% 2%
Black 10% 88% 12% 0% 10% 89% 10% 1% 10% 91% 9% 0%
Latino 8% 72% 26% 2% 8% 69% 30% 1% 8% 75% 23% 2%
Asian 2% 65% 35% 0% 2% 62% 37% 1% 2% 68% 32% 0%
Other 1% 59% 36% 5% 1% 55% 42% 3% 1% 62% 33% 5%
TOTAL 101% 55.65% 43.54% 1.81% 100% 53.34% 44.85% 1.81% TRUE 57.88% 41.31% 1.81%
100% 55.10% 43.11% 1.79%
Switch 3.86% -3.86% 0.00% Switch 3.73% -3.73% 0.00% Uncount -2.32% -0.58% -0.03%
Pre-Sw 58.96% 39.25% 1.79% Pre-Sw 57.07% 41.12% 1.81% Pre-Sw 55.56% 40.73% 1.78%
Uncount -2.36% -0.55% -0.03% Uncount 2.28% 0.58% 0.03% Switch -3.89% 3.89% 0.00%
Gross 56.60% 38.70% 1.77% Gross 59.36% 41.69% 1.84% Net 51.68% 44.62% 1.78%
TRUE 58.31% 39.87% 1.82% TRUE 57.69% 40.52% 1.78% Final 52.69% 45.49% 1.82%
AGE
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX* Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
18-29 11% 60% 38% 2% 12% 60% 38% 2% 11% 63% 35% 2%
30-44 23% 55% 43% 2% 24% 53% 45% 2% 23% 58% 40% 2%
45-59 33% 55% 44% 1% 34% 53% 46% 1% 33% 58% 41% 1%
60+ 33% 53% 45% 2% 29% 50% 48% 2% 33% 56% 42% 2%
TOTAL 100% 54.89% 43.44% 1.67% 99% 52.44% 44.92% 1.64% TRUE 57.89% 40.44% 1.67%
100% 52.97% 45.37% 1.66%
Switch 3.84% -3.84% 0.00% Switch 3.71% -3.71% 0.00% Uncount -2.32% -0.57% -0.02%
Pre-Sw 58.73% 39.60% 1.67% Pre-Sw 56.68% 41.67% 1.66% Pre-Sw 55.57% 39.87% 1.65%
Uncount -2.35% -0.55% -0.02% Uncount 2.27% 0.58% 0.02% Switch -3.89% 3.89% 0.00%
Gross 56.38% 39.04% 1.65% Gross 58.94% 42.25% 1.68% Net 51.68% 43.76% 1.65%
TRUE 58.08% 40.22% 1.70% TRUE 57.30% 41.07% 1.63% Final 53.23% 45.07% 1.70%
INCOME
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
< 15 7% 67% 30% 3% 7% 67% 30% 3% 7% 70% 27% 3%
15-30 12% 63% 35% 2% 12% 61% 36% 3% 12% 66% 32% 2%
30-50 21% 58% 41% 1% 21% 56% 43% 1% 21% 61% 38% 1%
50-75 22% 52% 46% 2% 22% 50% 48% 2% 22% 55% 43% 2%
75-100 15% 53% 46% 1% 15% 52% 47% 1% 15% 56% 43% 1%
100-150 13% 50% 48% 2% 13% 47% 51% 2% 13% 53% 45% 2%
150-200 5% 47% 51% 2% 5% 47% 51% 2% 5% 49% 49% 2%
200+ 5% 48% 51% 1% 5% 45% 53% 2% 5% 49% 50% 1%
TOTAL 100% 55.07% 43.27% 1.66% 100% 53.28% 44.89% 1.83% TRUE 57.92% 40.42% 1.66%
Switch 3.85% -3.85% 0.00% Switch 3.73% -3.73% 0.00% Uncount -2.32% -0.57% -0.02%
Pre-Sw 58.92% 39.42% 1.66% Pre-Sw 57.01% 41.16% 1.83% Pre-Sw 55.60% 39.85% 1.64%
Uncount -2.36% -0.55% -0.02% Uncount 2.28% 0.58% 0.03% Switch -3.89% 3.89% 0.00%
Gross 56.57% 38.86% 1.64% Gross 59.29% 41.74% 1.86% Net 51.71% 43.75% 1.64%
TRUE 58.28% 40.04% 1.69% TRUE 57.63% 40.57% 1.80% Final 53.26% 45.06% 1.69%
EDUCATION
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX* Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
NoHS 4% 64% 35% 1% 3% 64% 35% 1% 4% 67% 32% 1%
HSGr 21% 57% 42% 1% 21% 55% 44% 1% 21% 60% 39% 1%
Coll 30% 52% 46% 2% 31% 51% 47% 2% 30% 55% 43% 2%
Grad 26% 52% 46% 2% 27% 49% 49% 2% 26% 55% 43% 2%
PostG 19% 60% 39% 1% 18% 58% 41% 1% 19% 62% 37% 1%
TOTAL 100% 55.05% 43.39% 1.56% 100% 52.95% 45.47% 1.58% TRUE 57.86% 40.58% 1.56%
Switch 3.85% -3.85% 0.00% Switch 3.71% -3.71% 0.00% Uncount -2.31% -0.57% -0.02%
Pre-Sw 58.90% 39.54% 1.56% Pre-Sw 56.66% 41.76% 1.58% Pre-Sw 55.55% 40.01% 1.54%
Uncount -2.36% -0.55% -0.02% Uncount 2.27% 0.58% 0.02% Switch -3.89% 3.89% 0.00%
Gross 56.55% 38.98% 1.54% Gross 58.92% 42.35% 1.60% Net 51.66% 43.90% 1.54%
TRUE 58.26% 40.16% 1.58% TRUE 57.28% 41.17% 1.56% Final 53.20% 45.21% 1.58%
EDUCATION
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX* Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
NoDeg 54% 55% 43% 2% 55% 53% 45% 2% 54% 58% 40% 2%
Grad 46% 55% 43% 2% 45% 53% 46% 1% 46% 58% 40% 2%
TOTAL 100% 55.00% 43.00% 2.00% 100% 53.00% 45.45% 1.55% TRUE 58.00% 40.00% 2.00%
Switch 3.85% -3.85% 0.00% Switch 3.71% -3.71% 0.00% Uncount -2.32% -0.56% -0.03%
Pre-Sw 58.85% 39.15% 2.00% Pre-Sw 56.71% 41.74% 1.55% Pre-Sw 55.68% 39.44% 1.97%
Uncount -2.35% -0.55% -0.03% Uncount 2.27% 0.58% 0.02% Switch -3.90% 3.90% 0.00%
Gross 56.50% 38.60% 1.97% Gross 58.98% 42.32% 1.57% Net 51.78% 43.34% 1.97%
TRUE 58.20% 39.77% 2.03% TRUE 57.33% 41.14% 1.53% Final 53.33% 44.64% 2.03%
WHEN DECIDED
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX* Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
Today 9% 60% 37% 3% 10% 61% 36% 3% 9% 62% 35% 3%
3Days 9% 57% 41% 2% 9% 51% 47% 2% 9% 59% 39% 2%
Week 8% 53% 45% 2% 9% 52% 47% 1% 8% 56% 42% 2%
Month 21% 58% 41% 1% 21% 54% 44% 2% 21% 60% 39% 1%
Before 52% 57% 42% 1% 50% 54% 45% 1% 52% 57% 42% 1%
TOTAL 99% 56.59% 41.07% 1.34% 99% 53.71% 43.80% 1.49% 99% 57.61% 40.05% 1.34%
100% 57.16% 41.48% 1.35% 100% 54.25% 44.24% 1.51% TRUE 58.19% 40.45% 1.35%
Switch 4.00% -4.00% 0.00% Switch 3.80% -3.80% 0.00% Uncount -2.33% -0.57% -0.02%
Pre-Sw 61.16% 37.48% 1.35% Pre-Sw 58.05% 40.44% 1.51% Pre-Sw 55.86% 39.89% 1.33%
Uncount -2.45% -0.52% -0.02% Uncount 2.32% 0.57% 0.02% Switch -3.91% 3.91% 0.00%
Gross 58.72% 36.96% 1.33% Gross 60.37% 41.01% 1.53% Net 51.95% 43.80% 1.33%
TRUE 60.53% 38.10% 1.38% TRUE 58.67% 39.85% 1.48% Final 53.51% 45.11% 1.37%
PARTY ID
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX* Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
Dem 39% 93% 6% 1% 38% 93% 7% 0% 40% 95% 4% 1%
Rep 35% 9% 90% 1% 36% 8% 91% 1% 35% 13% 86% 1%
Ind 26% 58% 38% 4% 26% 57% 39% 4% 25% 61% 35% 4%
TOTAL 100% 54.50% 43.72% 1.78% 100% 53.04% 45.56% 1.40% TRUE 57.80% 40.45% 1.75%
Switch 3.82% -3.82% 0.00% Switch 3.71% -3.71% 0.00% Uncount -2.31% -0.57% -0.02%
Pre-Sw 58.32% 39.91% 1.78% Pre-Sw 56.75% 41.85% 1.40% Pre-Sw 55.49% 39.88% 1.73%
Uncount -2.33% -0.56% -0.02% Uncount 2.27% 0.59% 0.02% Switch -3.88% 3.88% 0.00%
Gross 55.98% 39.35% 1.76% Gross 59.02% 42.43% 1.42% Net 51.60% 43.77% 1.73%
TRUE 57.66% 40.53% 1.81% TRUE 57.37% 41.25% 1.38% Final 53.15% 45.08% 1.78%
IDEOLOGY
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX* Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
Lib 21% 88% 10% 2% 20% 87% 11% 2% 21% 91% 7% 2%
Mod 48% 62% 36% 2% 47% 60% 38% 2% 47% 65% 33% 2%
Con 32% 21% 77% 2% 32% 20% 78% 2% 32% 24% 74% 2%
TOTAL 101% 54.96% 44.02% 2.02% 99% 52.00% 45.02% 1.98% 100% 57.34% 40.66% 2.00%
100% 54.42% 43.58% 2.00% 100% 52.53% 45.47% 2.00% TRUE 57.34% 40.66% 2.00%
Switch 3.81% -3.81% 0.00% Switch 3.68% -3.68% 0.00% Uncount -2.29% -0.57% -0.03%
Pre-Sw 58.22% 39.78% 2.00% Pre-Sw 56.20% 41.80% 2.00% Pre-Sw 55.05% 40.09% 1.97%
Uncount -2.33% -0.56% -0.03% Uncount 2.25% 0.59% 0.03% Switch -3.85% 3.85% 0.00%
Gross 55.90% 39.22% 1.97% Gross 58.45% 42.38% 2.03% Net 51.19% 43.94% 1.97%
TRUE 57.57% 40.40% 2.03% TRUE 56.82% 41.20% 1.97% Final 52.72% 45.25% 2.03%
VOTE BY REGION
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX* Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
NE 22% 64% 35% 1% 22% 63% 35% 2% 22% 67% 32% 2%
MidW 27% 57% 42% 1% 27% 52% 47% 1% 27% 60% 39% 1%
South 29% 45% 54% 1% 30% 45% 53% 2% 30% 48% 50% 2%
West 21% 57% 40% 3% 21% 54% 43% 3% 21% 60% 37% 3%
TOTAL 99% 54.49% 43.10% 1.41% 100% 52.74% 45.32% 1.94% TRUE 57.94% 40.34% 1.94%
100% 55.04% 43.54% 1.42%
Switch 3.85% -3.85% 0.00% Switch 3.69% -3.69% 0.00% Uncount -2.32% -0.56% -0.03%
Pre-Sw 58.89% 39.68% 1.42% Pre-Sw 56.43% 41.63% 1.94% Pre-Sw 55.62% 39.78% 1.91%
Uncount -2.36% -0.56% -0.02% Uncount 2.26% 0.58% 0.03% Switch -3.89% 3.89% 0.00%
Gross 56.54% 39.13% 1.40% Gross 58.69% 42.21% 1.97% Net 51.73% 43.67% 1.91%
TRUE 58.24% 40.31% 1.45% TRUE 57.05% 41.03% 1.91% Final 53.16% 44.88% 1.97%
RELIGION
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
Prot 55% 46% 52% 2% 55% 44% 54% 2% 55% 49% 49% 2%
Cath 26% 56% 43% 1% 26% 55% 44% 1% 26% 59% 40% 1%
Jewish 2% 87% 10% 3% 2% 87% 12% 1% 2% 90% 7% 3%
Other 6% 71% 25% 4% 6% 71% 25% 4% 6% 75% 21% 4%
None 11% 76% 22% 2% 11% 74% 22% 4% 11% 81% 17% 2%
TOTAL 100% 54.22% 43.90% 1.88% 100% 52.64% 45.30% 2.06% TRUE 57.50% 40.62% 1.88%
Switch 3.80% -3.80% 0.00% Switch 3.68% -3.68% 0.00% Uncount -2.30% -0.57% -0.03%
Pre-Sw 58.02% 40.10% 1.88% Pre-Sw 56.32% 41.62% 2.06% Pre-Sw 55.20% 40.05% 1.85%
Uncount -2.32% -0.56% -0.03% Uncount 2.25% 0.58% 0.03% Switch -3.86% 3.86% 0.00%
Gross 55.69% 39.54% 1.85% Gross 58.58% 42.20% 2.09% Net 51.34% 43.92% 1.85%
TRUE 57.36% 40.73% 1.91% TRUE 56.95% 41.02% 2.03% Final 52.87% 45.22% 1.91%
BORN-AGAIN or EVANGELICAL?
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
Yes 33% 42% 57% 1% 34% 41% 58% 1% 33% 45% 54% 1%
No 67% 61% 37% 2% 66% 59% 39% 2% 67% 64% 34% 2%
TOTAL 100% 54.73% 43.60% 1.67% 100% 52.88% 45.46% 1.66% TRUE 57.73% 40.60% 1.67%
Switch 3.83% -3.83% 0.00% Switch 3.70% -3.70% 0.00% Uncount -2.31% -0.57% -0.02%
Pre-Sw 58.56% 39.77% 1.67% Pre-Sw 56.58% 41.76% 1.66% Pre-Sw 55.42% 40.03% 1.65%
Uncount -2.34% -0.56% -0.02% Uncount 2.26% 0.58% 0.02% Switch -3.88% 3.88% 0.00%
Gross 56.22% 39.21% 1.65% Gross 58.84% 42.34% 1.68% Net 51.54% 43.91% 1.65%
TRUE 57.91% 40.39% 1.70% TRUE 57.20% 41.16% 1.64% Final 53.08% 45.22% 1.70%
CHURCH ATTENDANCE
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX* Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
Often 17% 39% 59% 2% 17% 38% 60% 2% 17% 42% 56% 2%
Week 28% 48% 51% 1% 28% 46% 53% 1% 28% 51% 48% 1%
Month 11% 58% 40% 2% 12% 57% 41% 2% 11% 61% 37% 2%
Qtr 26% 61% 37% 2% 25% 60% 38% 2% 26% 65% 33% 2%
Never 15% 69% 29% 2% 15% 67% 30% 3% 15% 72% 26% 2%
TOTAL 97% 52.66% 42.68% 1.66% 97% 51.23% 43.96% 1.81% 97% 55.83% 39.51% 1.66%
100% 54.29% 44.00% 1.71% 100% 52.81% 45.32% 1.87% TRUE 57.56% 40.73% 1.71%
Switch 3.80% -3.80% 0.00% Switch 3.70% -3.70% 0.00% Uncount -2.30% -0.57% -0.02%
Pre-Sw 58.09% 40.20% 1.71% Pre-Sw 56.51% 41.62% 1.87% Pre-Sw 55.25% 40.16% 1.69%
Uncount -2.32% -0.56% -0.02% Uncount 2.26% 0.58% 0.03% Switch -3.87% 3.87% 0.00%
Gross 55.77% 39.64% 1.69% Gross 58.77% 42.21% 1.89% Net 51.39% 44.03% 1.69%
TRUE 57.44% 40.83% 1.74% TRUE 57.13% 41.03% 1.84% Final 52.92% 45.34% 1.74%
MARRIED?
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
Yes 68% 49% 49% 2% 68% 48% 51% 1% 68% 52% 46% 2%
No 32% 65% 33% 2% 32% 64% 34% 2% 32% 69% 29% 2%
TOTAL 100% 54.12% 43.88% 2.00% 100% 53.12% 45.56% 1.32% TRUE 57.44% 40.56% 2.00%
Switch 3.79% -3.79% 0.00% Switch 3.72% -3.72% 0.00% Uncount -2.30% -0.57% -0.03%
Pre-Sw 57.91% 40.09% 2.00% Pre-Sw 56.84% 41.84% 1.32% Pre-Sw 55.14% 39.99% 1.97%
Uncount -2.32% -0.56% -0.03% Uncount 2.27% 0.59% 0.02% Switch -3.86% 3.86% 0.00%
Gross 55.59% 39.53% 1.97% Gross 59.11% 42.43% 1.34% Net 51.28% 43.85% 1.97%
TRUE 57.26% 40.71% 2.03% TRUE 57.46% 41.24% 1.30% Final 52.81% 45.16% 2.03%
MARRIED?
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX* Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
Male 35% 49% 49% 2% 35% 47% 51% 2% 35% 52% 46% 2%
Female 33% 50% 49% 1% 33% 48% 50% 2% 33% 53% 46% 1%
No-Male 13% 62% 35% 3% 14% 62% 36% 2% 13% 66% 31% 3%
No-Fem 19% 66% 32% 2% 18% 66% 32% 2% 19% 69% 29% 2%
TOTAL 100% 54.25% 43.95% 1.80% 100% 52.85% 45.15% 2.00% TRUE 57.38% 40.82% 1.80%
Switch 3.80% -3.80% 0.00% Switch 3.70% -3.70% 0.00% Uncount -2.30% -0.57% -0.03%
Pre-Sw 58.05% 40.15% 1.80% Pre-Sw 56.55% 41.45% 2.00% Pre-Sw 55.08% 40.25% 1.77%
Uncount -2.32% -0.56% -0.03% Uncount 2.26% 0.58% 0.03% Switch -3.86% 3.86% 0.00%
Gross 55.73% 39.59% 1.77% Gross 58.81% 42.03% 2.03% Net 51.23% 44.10% 1.77%
TRUE 57.40% 40.78% 1.83% TRUE 57.17% 40.86% 1.97% Final 52.75% 45.42% 1.83%
BUSH JOB APPROVAL
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX* Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
Strong 19% 9% 90% 1% 19% 9% 90% 1% 19% 12% 87% 1%
Appr 23% 19% 79% 2% 23% 18% 79% 3% 23% 22% 76% 2%
Dis 14% 60% 38% 2% 15% 59% 38% 3% 14% 63% 35% 2%
StrDis 43% 91% 7% 2% 41% 91% 7% 2% 43% 94% 4% 2%
TOTAL 99% 53.61% 43.60% 1.79% 98% 52.01% 43.84% 2.15% 99% 56.58% 40.63% 1.79%
100% 54.15% 44.04% 1.81% 100% 53.07% 44.73% 2.19% TRUE 57.15% 41.04% 1.81%
Switch 3.79% -3.79% 0.00% Switch 3.72% -3.72% 0.00% Uncount -2.29% -0.57% -0.03%
Pre-Sw 57.94% 40.25% 1.81% Pre-Sw 56.79% 41.02% 2.19% Pre-Sw 54.87% 40.47% 1.78%
Uncount -2.32% -0.56% -0.03% Uncount 2.27% 0.57% 0.03% Switch -3.84% 3.84% 0.00%
Gross 55.62% 39.69% 1.78% Gross 59.06% 41.59% 2.22% Net 51.02% 44.31% 1.78%
TRUE 57.29% 40.87% 1.84% TRUE 57.41% 40.43% 2.16% Final 52.54% 45.62% 1.84%
OPINION OF GOP LEADERS
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX* Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
Excel 11% 6% 93% 1% 11% 6% 93% 1% 11% 8% 91% 1%
Good 31% 20% 79% 1% 33% 17% 81% 2% 31% 23% 76% 1%
Dis 34% 77% 21% 2% 34% 76% 22% 2% 34% 81% 17% 2%
Angry 22% 94% 4% 2% 21% 94% 4% 2% 22% 96% 2% 2%
TOTAL 98% 53.72% 42.74% 1.54% 99% 51.85% 45.28% 1.87% 98% 56.67% 39.79% 1.54%
100% 54.82% 43.61% 1.57% 100% 52.37% 45.74% 1.89% TRUE 57.83% 40.60% 1.57%
Switch 3.84% -3.84% 0.00% Switch 3.67% -3.67% 0.00% Uncount -2.31% -0.57% -0.02%
Pre-Sw 58.65% 39.78% 1.57% Pre-Sw 56.04% 42.07% 1.89% Pre-Sw 55.51% 40.03% 1.55%
Uncount -2.35% -0.56% -0.02% Uncount 2.24% 0.59% 0.03% Switch -3.89% 3.89% 0.00%
Gross 56.31% 39.22% 1.55% Gross 58.28% 42.66% 1.92% Net 51.63% 43.92% 1.55%
TRUE 58.00% 40.40% 1.60% TRUE 56.66% 41.48% 1.86% Final 53.17% 45.23% 1.60%
CONGRESS JOB APPROVAL
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX* Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
Appr 36% 26% 73% 1% 37% 26% 72% 2% 36% 29% 70% 1%
Disap 62% 71% 27% 2% 61% 69% 28% 3% 62% 74% 24% 2%
TOTAL 98% 53.38% 43.02% 1.60% 98% 52.14% 43.28% 2.58% 98% 56.32% 40.08% 1.60%
100% 54.47% 43.90% 1.63% 100% 53.20% 44.16% 2.63% TRUE 57.47% 40.90% 1.63%
Switch 3.81% -3.81% 0.00% Switch 3.72% -3.72% 0.00% Uncount -2.30% -0.57% -0.02%
Pre-Sw 58.28% 40.09% 1.63% Pre-Sw 56.93% 40.44% 2.63% Pre-Sw 55.17% 40.33% 1.61%
Uncount -2.33% -0.56% -0.02% Uncount 2.28% 0.57% 0.04% Switch -3.86% 3.86% 0.00%
Gross 55.95% 39.52% 1.61% Gross 59.21% 41.01% 2.67% Net 51.31% 44.19% 1.61%
TRUE 57.63% 40.71% 1.66% TRUE 57.55% 39.86% 2.59% Final 52.84% 45.50% 1.66%
VOTED TODAY TO
BUSH
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX* Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
Support 22% 7% 92% 1% 22% 6% 93% 1% 22% 8% 91% 1%
Oppose 38% 93% 5% 2% 36% 93% 5% 2% 38% 96% 2% 2%
Neither 38% 45% 53% 2% 39% 41% 56% 3% 38% 48% 50% 2%
TOTAL 98% 53.98% 42.28% 1.74% 97% 50.79% 44.10% 2.11% 98% 56.48% 39.78% 1.74%
100% 55.08% 43.14% 1.78% 100% 52.36% 45.46% 2.18% TRUE 57.63% 40.59% 1.78%
Switch 3.86% -3.86% 0.00% Switch 3.67% -3.67% 0.00% Uncount -2.31% -0.57% -0.02%
Pre-Sw 58.94% 39.29% 1.78% Pre-Sw 56.03% 41.80% 2.18% Pre-Sw 55.33% 40.02% 1.75%
Uncount -2.36% -0.55% -0.02% Uncount 2.24% 0.59% 0.03% Switch -3.87% 3.87% 0.00%
Gross 56.58% 38.74% 1.75% Gross 58.27% 42.38% 2.21% Net 51.45% 43.90% 1.75%
TRUE 58.29% 39.91% 1.80% TRUE 56.65% 41.21% 2.14% Final 52.99% 45.21% 1.80%
U.S. DIRECTION?
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX* Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
Yes 40% 21% 78% 1% 41% 20% 79% 1% 40% 22% 75% 1%
No 56% 80% 18% 2% 55% 78% 20% 2% 56% 83% 15% 2%
TOTAL 96% 53.20% 41.28% 1.51% 96% 51.10% 43.39% 1.51% 96% 55.28% 38.40% 1.52%
100% 55.42% 43.00% 1.57% 100% 53.23% 45.20% 1.57% TRUE 58.07% 40.34% 1.60%
Switch 3.88% -3.88% 0.00% Switch 3.73% -3.73% 0.00% Uncount -2.32% -0.56% -0.02%
Pre-Sw 59.30% 39.12% 1.57% Pre-Sw 56.96% 41.47% 1.57% Pre-Sw 55.74% 39.77% 1.57%
Uncount -2.37% -0.55% -0.02% Uncount 2.28% 0.58% 0.02% Switch -3.90% 3.90% 0.00%
Gross 56.93% 38.58% 1.55% Gross 59.23% 42.05% 1.59% Net 51.84% 43.67% 1.57%
TRUE 58.66% 39.75% 1.60% TRUE 57.57% 40.87% 1.55% Final 53.40% 44.98% 1.62%
ECONOMY
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX* Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
Excel 10% 13% 86% 1% 9% 13% 86% 1% 10% 16% 85% 1%
Good 38% 32% 66% 2% 40% 32% 66% 2% 38% 35% 63% 2%
NG 38% 77% 21% 2% 37% 74% 23% 3% 38% 80% 18% 2%
Poor 13% 87% 11% 2% 13% 85% 13% 2% 13% 90% 8% 2%
TOTAL 99% 54.03% 43.09% 1.88% 99% 52.40% 44.34% 2.26% 99% 57.00% 40.32% 1.88%
100% 54.58% 43.53% 1.90% 100% 52.93% 44.79% 2.28% TRUE 57.46% 40.65% 1.90%
Switch 3.82% -3.82% 0.00% Switch 3.71% -3.71% 0.00% Uncount -2.30% -0.57% -0.03%
Pre-Sw 58.40% 39.70% 1.90% Pre-Sw 56.63% 41.08% 2.28% Pre-Sw 55.16% 40.08% 1.87%
Uncount -2.34% -0.56% -0.03% Uncount 2.27% 0.58% 0.03% Switch -3.86% 3.86% 0.00%
Gross 56.06% 39.15% 1.87% Gross 58.90% 41.66% 2.31% Net 51.30% 43.94% 1.87%
TRUE 57.75% 40.33% 1.93% TRUE 57.26% 40.49% 2.25% Final 52.83% 45.25% 1.92%
FINANCIAL SITUATION
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX* Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
Better 29% 28% 71% 1% 30% 28% 71% 1% 29% 31% 68% 1%
Worse 26% 80% 17% 3% 25% 77% 20% 3% 26% 83% 14% 3%
Same 45% 57% 41% 2% 44% 56% 42% 2% 45% 60% 38% 2%
TOTAL 100% 54.57% 43.46% 1.97% 99% 52.29% 44.78% 1.93% TRUE 57.57% 40.46% 1.97%
100% 52.82% 45.23% 1.95%
Switch 3.82% -3.82% 0.00% Switch 3.70% -3.70% 0.00% Uncount -2.30% -0.57% -0.03%
Pre-Sw 58.39% 39.64% 1.97% Pre-Sw 56.52% 41.54% 1.95% Pre-Sw 55.27% 39.89% 1.94%
Uncount -2.34% -0.55% -0.03% Uncount 2.26% 0.58% 0.03% Switch -3.87% 3.87% 0.00%
Gross 56.05% 39.09% 1.94% Gross 58.78% 42.12% 1.98% Net 51.40% 43.76% 1.94%
TRUE 57.74% 40.26% 2.00% TRUE 57.14% 40.94% 1.92% Final 52.93% 45.07% 2.00%
FINANCIAL SITUATION
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
Ahead 31% 36% 63% 1% 31% 34% 65% 1% 31% 39% 60% 1%
Barely 50% 59% 39% 2% 50% 57% 41% 2% 50% 62% 36% 2%
Behind 17% 76% 20% 4% 17% 74% 23% 3% 17% 79% 17% 4%
TOTAL 98% 53.58% 42.43% 1.99% 98% 51.62% 44.56% 1.82% 98% 56.52% 39.49% 1.99%
100% 54.67% 43.30% 2.03% 100% 52.67% 45.47% 1.86% TRUE 57.67% 40.30% 2.03%
Switch 3.83% -3.83% 0.00% Switch 3.69% -3.69% 0.00% Uncount -2.31% -0.56% -0.03%
Pre-Sw 58.50% 39.47% 2.03% Pre-Sw 56.36% 41.78% 1.86% Pre-Sw 55.37% 39.73% 2.00%
Uncount -2.34% -0.55% -0.03% Uncount 2.25% 0.58% 0.03% Switch -3.88% 3.88% 0.00%
Gross 56.16% 38.92% 2.00% Gross 58.62% 42.37% 1.88% Net 51.49% 43.61% 2.00%
TRUE 57.85% 40.09% 2.06% TRUE 56.98% 41.19% 1.83% Final 53.03% 44.91% 2.06%
LIFE FOR NEXT GENERATION
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
Better 30% 38% 61% 1% 30% 37% 62% 1% 30% 41% 58% 1%
Worse 40% 69% 29% 2% 40% 66% 32% 2% 40% 72% 26% 2%
Same 28% 54% 44% 2% 28% 52% 46% 2% 28% 57% 41% 2%
TOTAL 98% 54.12% 42.22% 1.66% 98% 52.06% 44.28% 1.66% 98% 57.06% 39.28% 1.66%
100% 55.22% 43.08% 1.69% 100% 53.12% 45.18% 1.69% TRUE 58.22% 40.08% 1.69%
Switch 3.87% -3.87% 0.00% Switch 3.72% -3.72% 0.00% Uncount -2.33% -0.56% -0.02%
Pre-Sw 59.09% 39.22% 1.69% Pre-Sw 56.84% 41.47% 1.69% Pre-Sw 55.90% 39.52% 1.67%
Uncount -2.36% -0.55% -0.02% Uncount 2.27% 0.58% 0.02% Switch -3.91% 3.91% 0.00%
Gross 56.73% 38.67% 1.67% Gross 59.11% 42.05% 1.72% Net 51.98% 43.43% 1.67%
TRUE 58.44% 39.84% 1.72% TRUE 57.46% 40.87% 1.67% Final 53.54% 44.74% 1.72%
IMPORTANCE OF IRAQ
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX* Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
Extreme 36% 61% 38% 1% 35% 60% 39% 1% 36% 64% 35% 1%
Very 32% 47% 51% 2% 32% 46% 52% 2% 32% 50% 48% 2%
Some 20% 49% 49% 2% 21% 47% 50% 3% 20% 52% 46% 2%
Not 10% 65% 33% 2% 10% 62% 36% 2% 10% 68% 30% 2%
TOTAL 98% 53.30% 43.10% 1.60% 98% 51.79% 44.39% 1.82% 98% 56.24% 40.16% 1.60%
100% 54.39% 43.98% 1.63% 100% 52.85% 45.30% 1.86% TRUE 57.39% 40.98% 1.63%
Switch 3.81% -3.81% 0.00% Switch 3.70% -3.70% 0.00% Uncount -2.30% -0.57% -0.02%
Pre-Sw 58.19% 40.17% 1.63% Pre-Sw 56.55% 41.60% 1.86% Pre-Sw 55.09% 40.41% 1.61%
Uncount -2.33% -0.56% -0.02% Uncount 2.26% 0.58% 0.03% Switch -3.86% 3.86% 0.00%
Gross 55.87% 39.61% 1.61% Gross 58.81% 42.18% 1.88% Net 51.24% 44.26% 1.61%
TRUE 57.54% 40.80% 1.66% TRUE 57.17% 41.00% 1.83% Final 52.76% 45.58% 1.66%
IMPORTANCE OF TERRORISM
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX* Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
Extreme 40% 46% 53% 1% 39% 46% 53% 1% 40% 49% 50% 1%
Very 32% 53% 45% 2% 33% 51% 47% 2% 32% 56% 42% 2%
Some 20% 68% 29% 3% 20% 65% 32% 3% 20% 71% 26% 3%
Not 6% 70% 27% 3% 6% 66% 31% 3% 6% 73% 24% 3%
TOTAL 98% 53.16% 43.02% 1.82% 98% 51.73% 44.44% 1.83% 98% 56.10% 40.08% 1.82%
100% 54.24% 43.90% 1.86% 100% 52.79% 45.35% 1.87% TRUE 57.24% 40.90% 1.86%
Switch 3.80% -3.80% 0.00% Switch 3.70% -3.70% 0.00% Uncount -2.29% -0.57% -0.03%
Pre-Sw 58.04% 40.10% 1.86% Pre-Sw 56.48% 41.65% 1.87% Pre-Sw 54.96% 40.33% 1.83%
Uncount -2.32% -0.56% -0.03% Uncount 2.26% 0.58% 0.03% Switch -3.85% 3.85% 0.00%
Gross 55.72% 39.54% 1.83% Gross 58.74% 42.24% 1.89% Net 51.11% 44.17% 1.83%
TRUE 57.39% 40.72% 1.89% TRUE 57.10% 41.06% 1.84% Final 52.63% 45.49% 1.89%
IMPORTANCE OF ECONOMY
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX* Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
Extreme 39% 60% 38% 2% 39% 59% 39% 2% 39% 63% 35% 2%
Very 43% 49% 48% 3% 43% 48% 50% 2% 43% 52% 45% 3%
Some 15% 52% 46% 2% 14% 49% 48% 3% 15% 55% 43% 2%
Not 2% 60% 38% 2% 2% 55% 42% 3% 2% 63% 35% 2%
TOTAL 99% 53.47% 43.12% 2.41% 98% 51.61% 44.27% 2.12% 99% 56.44% 40.15% 2.41%
100% 54.01% 43.56% 2.43% 100% 52.66% 45.17% 2.16% TRUE 57.01% 40.56% 2.43%
Switch 3.78% -3.78% 0.00% Switch 3.69% -3.69% 0.00% Uncount -2.28% -0.57% -0.03%
Pre-Sw 57.79% 39.77% 2.43% Pre-Sw 56.35% 41.49% 2.16% Pre-Sw 54.73% 39.99% 2.40%
Uncount -2.31% -0.56% -0.03% Uncount 2.25% 0.58% 0.03% Switch -3.83% 3.83% 0.00%
Gross 55.48% 39.22% 2.40% Gross 58.60% 42.07% 2.19% Net 50.90% 43.82% 2.40%
TRUE 57.14% 40.39% 2.47% TRUE 56.97% 40.90% 2.13% Final 52.41% 45.12% 2.47%
CONFIDENT VOTES COUNTED ACCURATELY?
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
Very 46% 42% 57% 1% 46% 39% 59% 2% 46% 45% 54% 1%
Some 41% 64% 35% 1% 41% 62% 36% 2% 41% 67% 32% 1%
NotVery 9% 77% 21% 2% 9% 74% 24% 2% 9% 80% 18% 2%
No 3% 69% 26% 5% 3% 68% 27% 5% 3% 72% 23% 5%
TOTAL 99% 54.56% 43.24% 1.20% 99% 52.06% 44.87% 2.07% 99% 57.53% 40.27% 1.20%
100% 55.11% 43.68% 1.21% 100% 52.59% 45.32% 2.09% TRUE 58.11% 40.68% 1.21%
Switch 3.86% -3.86% 0.00% Switch 3.68% -3.68% 0.00% Uncount -2.32% -0.57% -0.02%
Pre-Sw 58.97% 39.82% 1.21% Pre-Sw 56.27% 41.64% 2.09% Pre-Sw 55.79% 40.11% 1.20%
Uncount -2.36% -0.56% -0.02% Uncount 2.25% 0.58% 0.03% Switch -3.91% 3.91% 0.00%
Gross 56.61% 39.26% 1.20% Gross 58.52% 42.23% 2.12% Net 51.88% 44.01% 1.20%
TRUE 58.32% 40.45% 1.23% TRUE 56.89% 41.05% 2.06% Final 53.44% 45.33% 1.23%
VOTE BY SIZE OF COMMUNITY
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX* Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
Urban 29% 61% 37% 2% 30% 61% 37% 2% 29% 64% 34% 2%
Sub 47% 53% 45% 2% 47% 50% 48% 2% 47% 56% 42% 2%
Rural 24% 51% 48% 1% 24% 48% 50% 2% 24% 54% 45% 1%
TOTAL 100% 54.84% 43.40% 1.76% 101% 53.32% 45.66% 2.02% 100% 57.84% 40.40% 1.76%
100% 54.84% 43.40% 1.76% 100% 52.79% 45.21% 2.00% TRUE 57.84% 40.40% 1.76%
Switch 3.84% -3.84% 0.00% Switch 3.70% -3.70% 0.00% Uncount -2.31% -0.57% -0.02%
Pre-Sw 58.68% 39.56% 1.76% Pre-Sw 56.49% 41.51% 2.00% Pre-Sw 55.53% 39.83% 1.74%
Uncount -2.35% -0.55% -0.02% Uncount 2.26% 0.58% 0.03% Switch -3.89% 3.89% 0.00%
Gross 56.33% 39.01% 1.74% Gross 58.75% 42.09% 2.03% Net 51.64% 43.72% 1.74%
TRUE 58.03% 40.18% 1.79% TRUE 57.11% 40.92% 1.97% Final 53.18% 45.03% 1.79%
VOTE FOR U.S. SENATE
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX* Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
Dem 56% 88% 11% 1% 55% 88% 11% 1% 56% 89% 10% 1%
Rep 40% 11% 87% 2% 41% 11% 88% 1% 40% 14% 84% 2%
TOTAL 96% 53.68% 40.96% 1.51% 96% 52.91% 42.13% 0.96% 96% 55.44% 39.20% 1.36%
100% 55.83% 42.60% 1.57% 100% 55.11% 43.89% 1.00% TRUE 57.75% 40.83% 1.42%
Switch 3.91% -3.91% 0.00% Switch 3.86% -3.86% 0.00% Uncount -2.31% -0.57% -0.02%
Pre-Sw 59.74% 38.69% 1.57% Pre-Sw 58.97% 40.03% 1.00% Pre-Sw 55.44% 40.26% 1.40%
Uncount -2.39% -0.54% -0.02% Uncount 2.36% 0.56% 0.01% Switch -3.88% 3.88% 0.00%
Gross 57.35% 38.15% 1.55% Gross 61.33% 40.59% 1.01% Net 51.56% 44.14% 1.40%
TRUE 59.09% 39.31% 1.60% TRUE 59.58% 39.43% 0.99% Final 53.10% 45.46% 1.44%
_____________________________________________________________________
Reconciliation of Discrepancies
10,207 Respondents 13,251 Respondents
7:07pm 1:00pm Generic Trend
Categ Dem Rep Other Dem Rep Other Margin Dem Rep Other Margin
Vote04 58.42% 40.12% 1.46% 56.47% 41.63% 1.90% 14.84% 52.87% 45.95% 1.19% 6.92%
Gender 58.24% 40.24% 1.51% 56.85% 40.69% 2.45% 16.16% 53.37% 45.12% 1.51% 8.25%
Ra/Gen 58.00% 40.50% 1.51% 56.92% 41.23% 1.85% 15.69% 52.95% 45.02% 2.03% 7.93%
Race 58.31% 39.87% 1.82% 57.69% 40.52% 1.78% 17.17% 52.69% 45.49% 1.82% 7.19%
Age 58.08% 40.22% 1.70% 57.30% 41.07% 1.63% 16.23% 53.23% 45.07% 1.70% 8.16%
Income 58.28% 40.04% 1.69% 57.63% 40.57% 1.80% 17.06% 53.26% 45.06% 1.69% 8.20%
Educ 58.26% 40.16% 1.58% 57.28% 41.17% 1.56% 16.11% 53.20% 45.21% 1.58% 7.99%
Decided 60.53% 38.10% 1.38% 58.67% 39.85% 1.48% 18.81% 53.51% 45.11% 1.37% 8.40%
Party 57.66% 40.53% 1.81% 57.37% 41.25% 1.38% 16.13% 53.15% 45.08% 1.78% 8.07%
Ideology57.57% 40.40% 2.03% 56.82% 41.20% 1.97% 15.62% 52.72% 45.25% 2.03% 7.46%
Region 58.24% 40.31% 1.45% 57.05% 41.03% 1.91% 16.02% 53.16% 44.88% 1.97% 8.28%
Religion57.36% 40.73% 1.91% 56.95% 41.02% 2.03% 15.92% 52.87% 45.22% 1.91% 7.64%
Area 58.03% 40.18% 1.79% 57.11% 40.92% 1.97% 16.19% 53.18% 45.03% 1.79% 8.16%
Senate 59.09% 39.31% 1.60% 59.58% 39.43% 0.99% 20.15% 53.10% 45.46% 1.44% 7.64%
Mean 58.29% 40.05% 1.66% 57.41% 40.83% 1.77% 16.58% 53.09% 45.21% 1.70% 7.88%
StDev 0.74% 0.63% 0.19% 0.79% 0.56% 0.34% 1.33% 0.23% 0.26% 0.25% 0.43%
HERE'S A COMPREHENSIVE ELECTION 2004 SITE:
POLLING DATA, ANALYSIS, DISCUSSION
and...
THE EXCEL INTERACTIVE ELECTION MODEL
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