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A Comprehensive 2004 Election Analysis
TruthIsAll This analysis determines the effect of uncounted and switched votes on the 2004 popular and electoral vote. It also provides a comprehensive sensitivity analysis to view the effect on the popular vote of incremental changes in the National Exit Poll (NEP) demographic weights and vote shares. The basis for the analysis is the NEP "How Voted in 2000" demographic. The Final NEP forced all demographic weightings and vote shares to match the recorded vote count. This required using impossible weightings in the "How Voted in 2000" demographic. In this study, the weights were adjusted to feasible values. Using realistic plausible weightings and the 12:22am Exit Poll vote shares, Kerry won the election by 52.6-46.4%, a 7.7 million vote margin. The true vote share was then applied to determine the level of switched votes required to match the recorded result. The source data for the study includes the following: 1) 2000 total national vote 2) 2004 total state vote 3) 2004 National Exit Poll (12:22am and 2pm Final) 4) Census 2004 vote estimate 5) 2000 annual mortality rate The National Exit Poll (NEP) "How Voted in 2000" demographic weights were adjusted to match 2000 Gore/Bush/Nader vote percentages. This was accomplished by applying the 0.87% annual mortality rate and assuming a 95% turnout of 2000 voters. NEP vote shares were not changed. The resulting calculation indicates that Kerry won by 7.7 million votes (66.10-58.38%). The recorded Bush margin was 3.0 million (62.04-59.03%). According to historical data, approximately 3% of the total votes cast are never counted. Approximately 50% of uncounted votes are found in highly Democratic (90%) minority districts; therefore, 75% of uncounted votes are assumed to be Democratic. The 2004 Census reported that 125.7 million voted, as opposed to 122.3mm recorded. The 3.4mm discrepancy (2.74% of 125.7) is the total number of uncounted votes used in the model. The racial mix in each state was used to approximate the number of uncounted votes in the state. The vote-switch rate was assumed to be constant across all states. Given the 2004 Census 125.74 million (0.30% MoE) total votes cast and the 12:22am NEP vote shares, the "Voted 2000" weights are constrained by the number of returning 2000 voters which is calculated by applying the 0.87% annual mortality rate (3.5% over 4 years) and an assumed 95% voter turnout. Therefore, the number of new 2004 voters who did not vote in 2000 (27.02 million) is equal to the difference between the 125.74mm total votes cast and the 98.72mm returning Gore, Bush and Other (Nader, Buchanan) voters. Based on these assumptions, Kerry won the TRUE vote by 66.10-58.38mm (52.57-46.43%) and the electoral vote by 349-189. The model indicates that 7.60% of Kerry votes were switched to Bush. The model includes four groups of sensitivity analyses. The first group focuses on uncounted and switched votes and consists of four tables. The first table displays the effect of incremental changes in switched vote rates on various key statistics. Given the base case 7.60% vote-switch, Kerry won the TRUE vote by 7.7 million and the electoral vote by 349-189. The second table displays the effect of incremental vote-switch rates on the electoral vote, given a constant 75% Democratic share of uncounted votes. The third displays the effect of incremental changes in uncounted and switched vote rates on Kerry vote shares. His vote share increases by 0.028% for each 1% increase in the uncounted vote rate and by 0.469% for each 1% increase in the switched vote rate. The changes in vote share are linear (constant). The fourth displays the effect of incremental changes in uncounted and switched vote rates on Kerry's margin of victory. The second group consists is based on the 12:22am National Exit Poll and consists of six tables. Each table displays 200 scenarios of 2000 voter turnout and Kerry's share of those who did not vote (DNV): newly registered and others who did not vote in 2000. The first three tables display the impact of incremental changes in 2000 Gore/Bush voter turnout and Kerry's share of DNV on 1) his national vote share, 2) vote margin and 3) probability of winning a 49.5% majority (the third-party vote was 1%). Kerry easily won all 200 scenarios. The next three tables in the group also display the impact of incremental changes in Gore voter turnout and Kerry's share of new voters, but assume 100% Bush/Nader 2000 voter turnout. The tables provide powerful circumstantial evidence that Kerry won. Despite the Bush turnout advantage, Kerry still won 199 of 200 scenarios. His only loss was the 91% Gore voter turnout/51% new voter share case. The following scenario illustrates just how unlikely it was that Bush won. Even assuming that Kerry won just 51% of new 2004 voters (it was 57% in the 12:22am NEP) and that 95% of Gore 2000 voters turned out in 2004 (compared to 100% turnout for Bush/Nader), Kerry still wins by 1.76 million votes (50.19-48.81%). The third sensitivity group measures the effect on Kerry's national vote share (based on the adjusted 12:22am NEP) by ranging over incremental Kerry vote shares and weightings for each demographic. For instance, the 12:22am NEP Party-ID weighting mix was 38% Dem/35% Rep/27% Ind. Kerry won 92% of the Democratic vote. The sensitivity table ranges over Democratic weights (35-40%) and Kerry Democratic vote shares (89-95%). The 35% Democratic Party-ID weighting and 89% Kerry Democratic vote share scenario is the (highly unlikely) WORST CASE SCENARIO; it produced a 48.9% Kerry national vote share. The BASE CASE (38/92%) SCENARIO combination produced a 52.5% share. The BEST CASE (40/95%) SCENARIO (highly unlikely) generated a 55.4% share. The fourth sensitivity group consists of five tables categorized by Kerry's share of DNV (51-61%). The tables represent a 49-element (7x7) matrix of Kerry national vote shares. The vote shares are calculated based on 49 combination scenarios of Kerry's share of returning Gore and Bush 2000 voters. _________________________________________________________________ RECORDED VOTE (in millions) 2000 Gore Bush Other Total 51.004 50.459 3.275 104.738 48.70% 48.18% 3.12% 2004 Kerry Bush Other Total 59.027 62.040 1.228 122.295 48.27% 50.73% 1.00% 2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL HOW VOTED IN 2000 PRELIMINARY (12:22am, 13047 respondents) Voted Weight Kerry Bush Other Votes No 17% 57% 41% 2% 20.79 Gore 39% 91% 8% 1% 47.70 Bush 41% 10% 90% 0% 50.14 Other 3% 71% 21% 8% 3.67 (Nader + Buchanan) Total 100% 51.41% 47.62% 0.97% Votes 122.30 62.87 58.24 1.19 122.30 FINAL (2pm, 13660 respondents) Voted Weight Kerry Bush Other Votes No 17% 54% 45% 1% 20.79 Gore 37% 90% 10% 0% 45.25 Bush 43% 9% 91% 0% 52.59 Other 3% 71% 21% 8% 3.67 Total 100% 48.48% 51.11% 0.41% Votes 122.30 59.29 62.50 0.50 122.30 ADJUSTED (TRUE) VOTE Voted Weight Kerry Bush Other Votes No 21.49% 57% 41% 2% 27.02 Gore 38.23% 91% 8% 1% 48.08 Bush 37.83% 10% 90% 0% 47.56 Other 2.46% 71% 21% 8% 3.09 Total 100% 52.57% 46.43% 1.00% 125.74 Votes 125.74 66.10 58.38 1.26 _________________________________________________________________ VOTE DISCREPANCY ASSUMPTIONS: (in thousands) UNCOUNTED VOTE SHARE Kerry 75%: 2,582 Bush 24%: 826 Other 1%: 34 Total 100%: 3,442 (2.74% of Census 125.7mm) SWITCHED VOTES (in thousands) 7.6% (4,486) of Kerry net (counted) votes switched to Bush (6.8% of Kerry true vote) KERRY VOTE RECONCILIATION TRUE 66,095 100.0% Unctd -2,582 3.91% ------ ------- ------ Net 63,513 96.09% Switch -4,486 6.79% ------ ------- ------ Recorded 59,027 89.30% EFFECT ON POPULAR AND ELECTORAL VOTE ........Vote......Electoral Vote Kerry Bush Kerry Bush Actual 59027 62040 252 286 Effect 7068 -3660 97 -97 TRUE 66095 58380 349 189 VOTE 52.57% 46.43% _________________________________________________________________ BASE CASE SUMMARY (votes in thousands) Switched votes:7.5% UNCOUNTED BY RACE Actual Pct Unct Total Pct Uncounted White 1.60% 99871 81.7% 1624 101495 80.7% 1.29% Other 7.50% 22424 18.3% 1818 24243 19.3% 1.45% Total 2.74% 122295 100% 3442 125737 100% 2.74% UNCOUNTED BY PARTY Switch TRUE VOTE Kerry 75% 59027 48.27% 2582 61609 49.0% 2.11% 4486 66095 52.57% Bush 24% 62040 50.73% 826 62866 50.0% 0.68% -4486 58380 46.43% Other 1% 1228 1.00% 34 1262 1.0% 0.03% 0 1262 1.00% Total 2.74% 122295 100% 3442 125737 100% 2.81% 0 125737 100% _________________________________________________________________ SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS I: Various effects of incremental switched vote rates (assume 75% Kerry share of uncounted votes) Actual 48.27% 50.73% 59027 62040 -3013 252 286 Switch Kerry Bush Kerry Bush Margin KEV BEV Flip 7.6% 52.57% 46.43% 66095 58380 7715 349 189 CO FL IA MO NM NV OH VA 7.0% 52.28% 46.72% 65740 58739 7001 336 202 CO FL IA MO NM NV OH 6.0% 51.81% 47.19% 65150 59330 5821 325 213 5.0% 51.35% 47.65% 64560 59920 4640 325 213 4.0% 50.88% 48.12% 63970 60510 3460 325 213 CO FL IA NM NV OH 3.0% 50.41% 48.59% 63379 61100 2279 289 249 2.0% 49.94% 49.06% 62789 61691 1099 289 249 1.5% 49.70% 49.30% 62494 61986 508 289 249 IA NM NV OH 1.0% 49.47% 49.53% 62199 62281 -82 284 254 IA NM OH 0.0% 49.00% 50.00% 61609 62871 -1263 264 274 IA NM SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS II: Effect of incremental uncounted and switched votes on Kerry's EV Electoral vote increases by an average of: 1 for each 1% change in the Kerry uncounted vote share; 10 for each 1% change in the vote switch rate Kerry Electoral Vote Switched Kerry share of Uncounted Votes Votes 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 7.6% 325 325 336 336 336 349 7.0% 325 325 325 336 336 336 6.0% 325 325 325 325 325 325 5.0% 298 325 325 325 325 325 4.0% 289 289 289 289 298 325 3.0% 289 289 289 289 289 289 2.0% 264 284 284 289 289 289 1.0% 264 264 264 264 264 284 0.0% 252 252 252 252 264 264 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS III: Effect of incremental uncounted and switched votes on Kerry's vote share Vote share increases by: 0.03% for each 1% change in the Kerry share of uncounted votes 0.47% for each 1% change in the switched vote rate Kerry Vote Share Switched Kerry share of Uncounted Votes Votes 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 7.6% 51.88% 52.02% 52.16% 52.29% 52.43% 52.57% 7.0% 51.60% 51.74% 51.87% 52.01% 52.15% 52.28% 6.0% 51.13% 51.27% 51.40% 51.54% 51.68% 51.81% 5.0% 50.66% 50.80% 50.93% 51.07% 51.21% 51.35% 4.0% 50.19% 50.33% 50.47% 50.60% 50.74% 50.88% 3.0% 49.72% 49.86% 50.00% 50.13% 50.27% 50.41% 2.0% 49.25% 49.39% 49.53% 49.66% 49.80% 49.94% 1.0% 48.78% 48.92% 49.06% 49.19% 49.33% 49.47% 0.0% 48.31% 48.45% 48.59% 48.72% 48.86% 49.00% SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IV: Effect of incremental uncounted and switched votes on Kerry's vote margin Vote margin increases by: 69,000 for each 1% change in the Kerry share of uncounted votes 1,181,000 for each 1% change in the switched vote rate Kerry Vote Margin (in thousands) Switched Kerry share of Uncounted Votes Votes 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 7.6% 5994 6338 6682 7026 7370 7715 7.0% 5285 5629 5974 6318 6662 7006 6.0% 4105 4449 4793 5137 5482 5826 5.0% 2924 3268 3613 3957 4301 4645 4.0% 1744 2088 2432 2776 3120 3465 3.0% 563 907 1251 1596 1940 2284 2.0% -617 -273 71 415 759 1104 1.0% -1798 -1454 -1110 -765 -421 -77 0.0% -2979 -2634 -2290 -1946 -1602 -1258 ___________________________________________________________________ PROBABILITY OF KERRY VOTE DISCREPANCY MoE: 1.0% Switched Kerry share of Uncounted Votes Votes 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% Probability of Vote Discrepancy ...................1 in................. 7.6% 1.4t 10t 79t 643t 4.5t nc 7.0% 31b 192b 1.3t 9.2t 71t 600t 6.0% 101m 491m 2.6b 15b 87b 564b 5.0% 744k 2.9m 12m 52m 247m 1.2b 4.0% 12k1 37k 122k 426k 1.6m 6.4m 3.0% 462 1.1k 2.8k 7.8k 23k 73k 2.0% 38 72 148 324 756 1.9k 1.0% 6 10 17 29 54 108 0.0% 2 3 4 5 8 13 ___________________________________________________________________ ANALYSIS OF UNCOUNTED AND SWITCHED VOTES BY STATE (votes in thousands) Uncounted: 2.74% of total votes cast Kerry: 2.06% Bush: 0.66% White: 1.60% Non-white:7.50% Switched: 7.60% Recorded Vote + Uncounted + Switched = TRUE Vote Total Kerry Bush Kerry Bush Kerry Bush Kerry Kerry Bush Kerry Bush Margin 122295 59027 62040 48.27% 50.73% 2582 826 4486 66095 58380 52.57% 46.43% Change EVFlip AL 1877 694 1176 37.0% 62.7% 47 15 52 793 1139 40.9% 58.7% 7.0% AK 307 111 191 36.2% 62.2% 8 2 8 127 185 40.0% 58.4% 6.9% AZ 1998 894 1104 44.7% 55.3% 35 11 67 996 1048 48.7% 51.3% 7.7% AR 1049 470 573 44.8% 54.6% 21 7 35 527 545 48.9% 50.5% 7.9% CA 12255 6745 5510 55.0% 45.0% 272 87 506 7523 5091 59.6% 40.3% 9.5% CO 2116 1002 1101 47.4% 52.0% 35 11 75 1112 1037 51.4% 48.0% 8.0% 9 CT 1564 857 694 54.8% 44.4% 29 9 64 950 639 59.3% 39.9% 9.3% DC 226 203 21 89.8% 9.3% 11 3 15 229 9 95.3% 3.8% 15.7% DE 373 200 172 53.6% 46.1% 9 3 15 224 160 58.2% 41.6% 9.3% FL 7582 3584 3965 47.3% 52.3% 155 50 269 4008 3746 51.5% 48.1% 8.3% 27 GA 3280 1366 1914 41.6% 58.4% 89 28 102 1557 1840 45.8% 54.1% 7.8% HI 426 232 194 54.5% 45.5% 19 6 17 268 183 59.5% 40.5% 10.6% ID 590 181 409 30.7% 69.3% 8 3 14 203 398 33.8% 66.2% 5.5% IL 5238 2892 2346 55.2% 44.8% 109 35 217 3218 2164 59.8% 40.2% 9.4% IN 2448 969 1479 39.6% 60.4% 41 13 73 1083 1420 43.3% 56.7% 6.9% IA 1500 742 752 49.5% 50.1% 21 7 56 819 703 53.6% 46.0% 8.2% 7 KS 1180 435 736 36.9% 62.4% 20 6 33 488 710 40.4% 58.8% 6.5% KY 1791 713 1069 39.8% 59.7% 29 9 53 796 1025 43.5% 56.0% 6.9% LA 1929 820 1102 42.5% 57.1% 54 17 62 935 1058 46.7% 52.9% 8.0% ME 735 397 330 54.0% 44.9% 10 3 30 437 303 58.4% 40.6% 8.9% MD 2370 1334 1024 56.3% 43.2% 65 21 100 1499 945 61.0% 38.5% 9.9% MA 2875 1804 1071 62.7% 37.3% 51 16 135 1990 952 67.6% 32.3% 10.4% MI 4816 2479 2313 51.5% 48.0% 98 31 186 2763 2159 55.9% 43.6% 8.9% MN 2811 1445 1347 51.4% 47.9% 46 15 108 1600 1253 55.7% 43.6% 8.6% MS 1146 458 685 40.0% 59.8% 34 11 34 526 661 44.2% 55.5% 7.7% MO 2715 1259 1456 46.4% 53.6% 51 16 94 1404 1378 50.5% 49.5% 8.0% 11 MT 446 174 266 39.0% 59.6% 7 2 13 194 255 42.6% 56.0% 6.8% NE 773 254 513 32.9% 66.4% 12 4 19 285 498 36.1% 63.1% 5.9% NV 821 397 419 48.4% 51.0% 16 5 30 443 394 52.6% 46.8% 8.4% 5 NH 675 340 331 50.4% 49.0% 9 3 26 375 308 54.5% 44.9% 8.3% NJ 3600 1911 1670 53.1% 46.4% 80 26 143 2134 1552 57.6% 41.9% 9.2% NM 751 370 377 49.3% 50.2% 14 4 28 412 354 53.5% 46.0% 8.4% 5 NY 7377 4314 2963 58.5% 40.2% 173 55 324 4811 2695 63.2% 35.4% 10.1% NC 3487 1526 1961 43.8% 56.2% 82 26 114 1722 1873 47.9% 52.1% 7.9% ND 312 111 197 35.6% 63.1% 5 2 8 124 190 39.0% 59.7% 6.3% OH 5601 2741 2860 48.9% 51.1% 104 33 206 3051 2688 53.2% 46.8% 8.4% 20 OK 1464 504 960 34.4% 65.6% 31 10 38 573 932 38.1% 61.9% 6.4% OR 1810 943 867 52.1% 47.9% 29 9 71 1043 806 56.4% 43.6% 8.7% PA 5732 2938 2794 51.3% 48.7% 104 33 220 3263 2607 55.6% 44.4% 8.7% RI 434 260 169 59.9% 38.9% 7 2 20 287 152 64.6% 34.2% 9.9% SC 1606 662 938 41.2% 58.4% 42 13 50 754 902 45.3% 54.3% 7.7% SD 386 149 233 38.6% 60.4% 7 2 11 167 224 42.2% 56.7% 6.8% TN 2429 1036 1384 42.7% 57.0% 50 16 78 1163 1322 46.6% 53.0% 7.6% TX 7360 2833 4527 38.5% 61.5% 144 46 212 3189 4361 42.2% 57.7% 6.9% UT 916 241 664 26.3% 72.5% 13 4 18 272 650 29.2% 69.6% 4.8% VT 309 184 121 59.5% 39.2% 4 1 14 202 109 64.2% 34.5% 9.7% VA 3172 1455 1717 45.9% 54.1% 75 24 109 1639 1632 50.1% 49.9% 8.2% 13 WA 2838 1510 1305 53.2% 46.0% 53 17 113 1676 1209 57.6% 41.6% 9.0% WV 755 327 424 43.3% 56.2% 11 3 25 362 403 47.1% 52.4% 7.3% WI 2984 1490 1478 49.9% 49.5% 49 16 112 1651 1382 54.1% 45.3% 8.4% WY 242 71 168 29.3% 69.4% 3 1 5 80 164 32.3% 66.4% 5.3% _________________________________________________________________ 2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL ANALYSIS Final Recorded Vote Kerry Bush Other 48.27% 50.73% 1.00% 59.027 62.040 1.228 Preliminary Exit Poll: 12:22am, 13047 respondents 122.3mm recorded vote Final Exit Poll: 2:04pm, 13660 respondents Adjusted Demographics: Total votes cast: 125.74mm (Census 2004) Vote shares adjusted to match 66.0-58.5mm vote "Voted 2000" weights: 2000 vote less 0.87% annual mortality; Assume 95% of 2000 voters turned out in 2004 PRELIMINARY FINAL ADJUSTED CATEGORY Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other Average.....50.73% 47.84% 1.35% 47.94% 51.07% 0.98% 52.53% 46.47% 1.00% Votes.......62.03 58.50 1.65 58.62 62.46 1.20 66.04 58.45 1.25 Gender......50.78% 48.22% 1.00% 47.78% 51.22% 1.00% 52.50% 46.50% 1.00% Party-ID....50.69% 47.50% 1.81% 47.89% 50.96% 1.15% 52.50% 46.50% 1.00% Voted 2000..51.41% 47.62% 0.97% 48.48% 51.11% 0.26% 52.57% 46.43% 1.00% Region......50.53% 47.95% 1.52% 48.24% 51.08% 0.68% 52.62% 46.38% 1.00% Education...50.43% 48.18% 1.39% 47.82% 51.24% 0.94% 52.56% 46.44% 1.00% Race........50.94% 47.86% 1.20% 47.81% 50.99% 1.20% 52.55% 46.45% 1.00% Age.........50.26% 47.69% 2.05% 47.96% 51.28% 0.76% 52.49% 46.51% 1.00% Income......51.39% 47.39% 1.22% 48.13% 51.02% 0.85% 52.51% 46.49% 1.00% Ideology....49.85% 48.15% 2.00% 47.25% 51.54% 1.21% 52.50% 46.50% 1.00% Religion....50.78% 47.94% 1.28% 47.99% 50.77% 1.24% 52.51% 46.49% 1.00% Military....51.20% 47.62% 1.18% 48.38% 50.44% 1.18% 52.56% 46.44% 1.00% Decided.....50.44% 47.95% 1.61% 47.50% 51.22% 1.28% 52.54% 46.46% 1.00% 97.5% Confidence Maximum.....51.60% 48.35% 1.99% 48.59% 51.59% 1.55% 52.60% 46.54% 1.00% Minimum.....49.85% 47.32% 0.72% 47.28% 50.55% 0.41% 52.46% 46.40% 1.00% PRELIMINARY FINAL ADJUSTED GENDER Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Votes Male 46% 47% 52% 1% 46% 44% 55% 1% 46.4% 49.5% 49.5% 1.0% 58.34 Female 54% 54% 45% 1% 54% 51% 48% 1% 53.6% 55.1% 43.9% 1.0% 67.40 Total 100% 50.78% 48.22% 1.00% 100% 47.78% 51.22% 1.00% 100% 52.50% 46.50% 1.00% 125.74 Votes 122.30 62.10 58.97 1.22 122.30 58.43 62.64 1.22 125.74 66.02 58.47 1.26 PARTY ID Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Votes Dem 38% 90% 9% 1% 37% 89% 11% 0% 39% 91% 8% 1% 49.04 Rep 35% 7% 92% 1% 37% 6% 93% 1% 35% 7% 92% 1% 44.01 Ind 27% 52% 44% 4% 26% 49% 48% 3% 26% 56% 43% 1% 32.69 Total 100% 50.69% 47.50% 1.81% 100% 47.89% 50.96% 1.15% 100% 52.50% 46.50% 1.00% 125.74 Votes 122.30 61.99 58.09 2.21 122.30 58.57 62.32 1.41 125.74 66.01 58.47 1.26 95% turnout VOTED IN 2000 Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Votes No 17% 57% 41% 2% 17% 54% 45% 1% 21.49% 57% 41% 2% 27.40 Gore 39% 91% 8% 1% 37% 90% 10% 0% 38.23% 91% 8% 1% 48.07 Bush 41% 10% 90% 0% 43% 9% 91% 0% 37.83% 10% 90% 0% 47.56 Nader 3% 71% 21% 8% 3% 71% 21% 3% 2.46% 71% 21% 8% 2.72 Total 100% 51.41% 47.62% 0.97% 100% 48.48% 51.11% 0.26% 100% 52.57% 46.43% 1.00% 125.74 Votes 122.30 62.87 58.24 1.19 122.11 59.29 62.50 0.32 125.74 66.10 58.38 1.26 REGION Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Votes East 22% 58% 41% 1% 22% 56% 43% 1% 22% 59% 40% 1% 27.66 Midw 26% 50% 49% 1% 26% 48% 51% 1% 26% 52% 47% 1% 32.69 South 31% 44% 54% 2% 32% 42% 58% 0% 31% 47% 52% 1% 38.98 West 21% 53% 45% 2% 20% 50% 49% 1% 21% 55% 44% 1% 26.41 Total 100% 50.53% 47.95% 1.52% 100% 48.24% 51.08% 0.68% 100% 52.62% 46.38% 1.00% 125.74 Votes 122.30 61.80 58.64 1.86 122.30 59.00 62.47 0.83 125.74 66.16 58.32 1.26 EDUCATION Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Votes NoHS 4% 53% 46% 1% 4% 50% 49% 1% 4% 56% 43% 1% 5.03 HSGr 22% 50% 48% 2% 22% 47% 52% 1% 22% 52% 47% 1% 27.66 Col 31% 48% 51% 1% 32% 46% 54% 0% 31% 50% 49% 1% 38.98 ColGr 26% 49% 50% 1% 26% 46% 52% 2% 26% 52% 47% 1% 32.69 PostG 17% 57% 41% 2% 16% 55% 44% 1% 17% 58% 41% 1% 21.38 Total 100% 50.43% 48.18% 1.39% 100% 47.82% 51.24% 0.94% 100% 52.56% 46.44% 1.00% 120.71 Votes 122.30 61.67 58.92 1.70 122.30 58.48 62.66 1.15 125.74 66.09 58.39 1.26 RACE/GENDER Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Votes WMale 36% 41.0% 58.0% 1.0% 36.0% 37.0% 62.0% 1.0% 36% 42% 57% 1% 45.27 WFem 41% 47.0% 52.0% 1.0% 41.0% 44.0% 55.0% 1.0% 41% 47% 52% 1% 51.55 NwMale 10% 69.0% 28.0% 3.0% 10.0% 67.0% 30.0% 3.0% 10% 75% 24% 1% 12.57 NwFem 13% 77.0% 22.0% 1.0% 13.0% 75.0% 24.0% 1.0% 13% 82% 17% 1% 16.35 Total 100% 50.94% 47.86% 1.20% 100% 47.81% 50.99% 1.20% 100% 52.55% 46.45% 1.00% 125.74 Votes 122.30 62.30 58.53 1.47 122.30 58.47 62.36 1.47 125.74 66.08 58.41 1.26 AGE... Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Votes 18-29 17% 56% 42% 2% 17% 54% 45% 1% 17% 58% 41% 1% 21.38 30-44 29% 48% 49% 3% 29% 46% 53% 1% 29% 51% 48% 1% 36.46 45-59 30% 51% 47% 2% 30% 48% 51% 1% 30% 52% 47% 1% 37.72 60+ 24% 48% 51% 1% 24% 46% 54% 0% 24% 51% 48% 1% 30.18 Total 100% 50.26% 47.69% 2.05% 100% 47.96% 51.28% 0.76% 100% 52.49% 46.51% 1.00% 125.74 Votes 122.30 61.47 58.32 2.51 122.30 58.65 62.71 0.93 125.74 66.00 58.48 1.26 INCOME Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Votes 0-15K 9% 65% 34% 1% 8% 63% 36% 1% 9% 67% 32% 1% 11.32 15-30 15% 60% 38% 2% 15% 57% 42% 1% 15% 61% 38% 1% 18.86 30-50 22% 53% 46% 1% 22% 50% 49% 1% 22% 54% 45% 1% 27.66 50-75 23% 46% 53% 1% 23% 43% 56% 1% 23% 48% 51% 1% 28.92 75-100 13% 48% 51% 1% 14% 45% 55% 0% 13% 48% 51% 1% 16.35 100-150 11% 45% 53% 2% 11% 42% 57% 1% 11% 46% 53% 1% 13.83 150-200 4% 47% 53% 0% 4% 42% 58% 0% 4% 47% 52% 1% 5.03 200+ 3% 41% 58% 1% 3% 35% 63% 2% 3% 41% 58% 1% 3.77 Total 100% 51.39% 47.39% 1.22% 100% 48.13% 51.02% 0.85% 100% 52.51% 46.49% 1.00% 125.74 Votes 122.30 62.85 57.96 1.49 122.30 58.86 62.39 1.04 125.74 66.03 58.46 1.26 IDEOLOGY Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Lib 22% 86% 12% 2% 21% 85% 13% 2% 22% 93% 6% 1% Mod 45% 57% 41% 2% 45% 54% 45% 1% 45% 58% 41% 1% Con 33% 16% 82% 2% 34% 15% 84% 1% 33% 18% 81% 1% Total 100% 49.85% 48.15% 2.00% 100% 47.25% 51.54% 1.21% 100% 52.50% 46.50% 1.00% Votes 122.30 60.96 58.89 2.45 122.30 57.78 63.03 1.48 125.74 66.01 58.47 1.26 RELIGION Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Votes Prot 53% 43% 56% 1% 53% 40% 59% 1% 53% 45% 54% 1% 66.64 Cath 27% 50% 49% 1% 27% 47% 52% 1% 27% 51% 48% 1% 33.95 Jewish 3% 78% 22% 0% 3% 74% 25% 1% 3% 78% 21% 1% 3.77 Other 7% 75% 21% 4% 7% 74% 23% 3% 7% 75% 24% 1% 8.80 None 10% 69% 29% 2% 10% 67% 31% 2% 10% 73% 26% 1% 12.57 Total 100% 50.78% 47.94% 1.28% 100% 47.99% 50.77% 1.24% 100% 52.51% 46.49% 1.00% 59.10 Votes 122.30 62.10 58.63 1.57 122.30 58.69 62.09 1.52 125.74 66.03 58.46 1.26 MILITARY Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Votes Yes 18% 43% 55% 2% 18% 41% 57% 2% 18% 46% 53% 1% 22.63 No 82% 53% 46% 1% 82% 50% 49% 1% 82% 54% 45% 1% 103.11 Total 100% 51.20% 47.62% 1.18% 100% 48.38% 50.44% 1.18% 100% 52.56% 46.44% 1.00% 125.74 Votes 122.30 62.62 58.24 1.44 122.30 59.17 61.69 1.44 125.74 66.09 58.39 1.26 WHEN DECIDED Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Votes Today 6% 53% 40% 7% 5% 52% 45% 3% 6% 66% 33% 1% 7.54 Last3 3% 53% 41% 6% 4% 55% 42% 3% 3% 62% 37% 1% 3.77 Last7 2% 48% 51% 1% 2% 48% 51% 1% 2% 61% 38% 1% 2.51 Last30 10% 60% 38% 2% 10% 54% 44% 2% 10% 60% 39% 1% 12.57 Over30 79% 49% 50% 1% 79% 46% 53% 1% 79% 50% 49% 1% 99.33 Total 100% 50.44% 47.95% 1.61% 100% 47.50% 51.22% 1.28% 100% 52.54% 46.46% 1.00% Votes 122.30 61.69 58.64 1.97 122.30 58.09 62.64 1.57 125.74 66.06 58.42 1.26 _________________________________________________________________ 2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL (12:22am) SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: 2000 VOTER TURNOUT AND KERRY SHARE OF NEW VOTERS EFFECT ON NATIONAL VOTE SHARE Kerry Share of New Voters (DNV) Turnout Weight DNV 60% 59% 58% 57% 56% 55% 54% 53% 52% 51% Kerry National Vote 100% 40.25% 17.35% 52.85% 52.68% 52.51% 52.33% 52.16% 51.98% 51.81% 51.64% 51.46% 51.29% 99% 39.84% 18.18% 52.92% 52.74% 52.56% 52.38% 52.20% 52.02% 51.83% 51.65% 51.47% 51.29% 98% 39.44% 19.01% 53.00% 52.81% 52.62% 52.43% 52.24% 52.05% 51.86% 51.67% 51.47% 51.28% 97% 39.04% 19.83% 53.07% 52.87% 52.67% 52.47% 52.27% 52.08% 51.88% 51.68% 51.48% 51.28% 96% 38.64% 20.66% 53.14% 52.93% 52.73% 52.52% 52.31% 52.11% 51.90% 51.69% 51.49% 51.28% 95% 38.23% 21.49% 53.21% 53.00% 52.78% 52.57% 52.35% 52.14% 51.92% 51.71% 51.49% 51.28% 94% 37.83% 22.31% 53.28% 53.06% 52.84% 52.61% 52.39% 52.17% 51.94% 51.72% 51.50% 51.27% 93% 37.43% 23.14% 53.35% 53.12% 52.89% 52.66% 52.43% 52.20% 51.96% 51.73% 51.50% 51.27% 92% 37.03% 23.97% 53.42% 53.18% 52.95% 52.71% 52.47% 52.23% 51.99% 51.75% 51.51% 51.27% 91% 36.62% 24.79% 53.50% 53.25% 53.00% 52.75% 52.50% 52.26% 52.01% 51.76% 51.51% 51.26% EFFECT ON NATIONAL VOTE MARGIN Kerry Share of New Voters Turnout Weight DNV 60% 59% 58% 57% 56% 55% 54% 53% 52% 51% Kerry Margin (millions) 100% 40.25% 17.35% 8.44 8.01 7.57 7.13 6.70 6.26 5.82 5.39 4.95 4.51 99% 39.84% 18.18% 8.62 8.16 7.71 7.25 6.79 6.34 5.88 5.42 4.96 4.51 98% 39.44% 19.01% 8.80 8.32 7.85 7.37 6.89 6.41 5.93 5.46 4.98 4.50 97% 39.04% 19.83% 8.98 8.48 7.98 7.48 6.99 6.49 5.99 5.49 4.99 4.49 96% 38.64% 20.66% 9.16 8.64 8.12 7.60 7.08 6.56 6.04 5.52 5.00 4.48 95% 38.23% 21.49% 9.34 8.80 8.26 7.72 7.18 6.64 6.10 5.56 5.02 4.48 94% 37.83% 22.31% 9.52 8.96 8.40 7.84 7.28 6.71 6.15 5.59 5.03 4.47 93% 37.43% 23.14% 9.70 9.12 8.54 7.95 7.37 6.79 6.21 5.63 5.04 4.46 92% 37.03% 23.97% 9.88 9.28 8.67 8.07 7.47 6.87 6.26 5.66 5.06 4.46 91% 36.62% 24.79% 10.06 9.44 8.81 8.19 7.57 6.94 6.32 5.70 5.07 4.45 EFFECT ON PROBABILITY OF MAJORITY VOTE MoE: 2% Kerry Share of New Voters Turnout Weight DNV 60% 59% 58% 57% 56% 55% 54% 53% 52% 51% Probability of Kerry Majority (49.5%) 100% 40.25% 17.35% 100.0% 99.9% 99.9% 99.8% 99.6% 99.4% 99.0% 98.4% 97.5% 96.3% 99% 39.84% 18.18% 100.0% 99.9% 99.9% 99.8% 99.6% 99.4% 99.0% 98.4% 97.6% 96.3% 98% 39.44% 19.01% 100.0% 100.0% 99.9% 99.8% 99.7% 99.5% 99.1% 98.5% 97.6% 96.3% 97% 39.04% 19.83% 100.0% 100.0% 99.9% 99.9% 99.7% 99.5% 99.1% 98.5% 97.6% 96.3% 96% 38.64% 20.66% 100.0% 100.0% 99.9% 99.9% 99.8% 99.5% 99.2% 98.6% 97.6% 96.2% 95% 38.23% 21.49% 100.0% 100.0% 99.9% 99.9% 99.8% 99.6% 99.2% 98.6% 97.7% 96.2% 94% 37.83% 22.31% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 99.9% 99.8% 99.6% 99.3% 98.7% 97.7% 96.2% 93% 37.43% 23.14% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 99.9% 99.8% 99.6% 99.3% 98.7% 97.7% 96.2% 92% 37.03% 23.97% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 99.9% 99.8% 99.7% 99.4% 98.8% 97.8% 96.1% 91% 36.62% 24.79% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 99.9% 99.9% 99.7% 99.4% 98.8% 97.8% 96.1% _________________________________________________________________ SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: GORE 2000 VOTER TURNOUT AND NEW VOTERS (ASSUME 100% BUSH/OTHER VOTER TURNOUT) NATIONAL VOTE SHARE Gore Kerry Share of New Voters (DNV) Turnout Weight DNV 60% 59% 58% 57% 56% 55% 54% 53% 52% 51% Kerry National Vote 100% 40.25% 17.35% 52.85% 52.68% 52.51% 52.33% 52.16% 51.98% 51.81% 51.64% 51.46% 51.29% 99% 39.84% 17.76% 52.67% 52.49% 52.31% 52.14% 51.96% 51.78% 51.60% 51.43% 51.25% 51.07% 98% 39.44% 18.16% 52.49% 52.31% 52.12% 51.94% 51.76% 51.58% 51.40% 51.22% 51.03% 50.85% 97% 39.04% 18.56% 52.30% 52.12% 51.93% 51.75% 51.56% 51.38% 51.19% 51.00% 50.82% 50.63% 96% 38.64% 18.96% 52.12% 51.93% 51.74% 51.55% 51.36% 51.17% 50.98% 50.79% 50.60% 50.41% 95% 38.23% 19.37% 51.94% 51.74% 51.55% 51.36% 51.16% 50.97% 50.78% 50.58% 50.39% 50.19% 94% 37.83% 19.77% 51.75% 51.56% 51.36% 51.16% 50.96% 50.77% 50.57% 50.37% 50.17% 49.98% 93% 37.43% 20.17% 51.57% 51.37% 51.17% 50.97% 50.77% 50.56% 50.36% 50.16% 49.96% 49.76% 92% 37.03% 20.57% 51.39% 51.18% 50.98% 50.77% 50.57% 50.36% 50.15% 49.95% 49.74% 49.54% 91% 36.62% 20.98% 51.21% 51.00% 50.79% 50.58% 50.37% 50.16% 49.95% 49.74% 49.53% 49.32% NATIONAL VOTE MARGIN Gore Kerry Share of New Voters Turnout Weight DNV 60% 59% 58% 57% 56% 55% 54% 53% 52% 51% Kerry Margin (millions) 100% 40.25% 17.35% 8.44 8.01 7.57 7.13 6.70 6.26 5.82 5.39 4.95 4.51 99% 39.84% 17.76% 7.98 7.54 7.09 6.64 6.20 5.75 5.30 4.86 4.41 3.96 98% 39.44% 18.16% 7.52 7.06 6.61 6.15 5.69 5.24 4.78 4.32 3.87 3.41 97% 39.04% 18.56% 7.06 6.59 6.13 5.66 5.19 4.73 4.26 3.79 3.33 2.86 96% 38.64% 18.96% 6.60 6.12 5.65 5.17 4.69 4.22 3.74 3.26 2.79 2.31 95% 38.23% 19.37% 6.14 5.65 5.17 4.68 4.19 3.71 3.22 2.73 2.25 1.76 94% 37.83% 19.77% 5.68 5.18 4.69 4.19 3.69 3.20 2.70 2.20 1.70 1.21 93% 37.43% 20.17% 5.22 4.71 4.21 3.70 3.19 2.69 2.18 1.67 1.16 0.66 92% 37.03% 20.57% 4.76 4.24 3.73 3.21 2.69 2.17 1.66 1.14 0.62 0.10 91% 36.62% 20.98% 4.30 3.77 3.25 2.72 2.19 1.66 1.14 0.61 0.08 -0.45 PROBABILITY OF MAJORITY VOTE MoE: 2% Gore Kerry Share of New Voters Turnout Weight DNV 60% 59% 58% 57% 56% 55% 54% 53% 52% 51% Probability of Kerry Winning Majority (49.5%) 100% 40.25% 17.35% 100.0% 99.9% 99.9% 99.8% 99.6% 99.4% 99.0% 98.4% 97.5% 96.3% 99% 39.84% 17.76% 99.9% 99.9% 99.8% 99.6% 99.3% 98.9% 98.2% 97.3% 96.0% 94.2% 98% 39.44% 18.16% 99.9% 99.7% 99.6% 99.3% 98.8% 98.1% 97.1% 95.7% 93.7% 91.2% 97% 39.04% 18.56% 99.7% 99.6% 99.3% 98.8% 98.0% 97.0% 95.4% 93.4% 90.6% 87.1% 96% 38.64% 18.96% 99.6% 99.2% 98.8% 98.0% 96.9% 95.3% 93.1% 90.2% 86.5% 82.0% 95% 38.23% 19.37% 99.3% 98.8% 98.0% 96.8% 95.2% 92.9% 89.9% 86.0% 81.3% 75.6% 94% 37.83% 19.77% 98.8% 98.0% 96.9% 95.2% 92.8% 89.7% 85.7% 80.8% 75.0% 68.3% 93% 37.43% 20.17% 98.1% 96.9% 95.2% 92.9% 89.7% 85.6% 80.6% 74.5% 67.7% 60.1% 92% 37.03% 20.57% 97.1% 95.4% 93.0% 89.8% 85.7% 80.5% 74.4% 67.3% 59.6% 51.5% 91% 36.62% 20.98% 95.6% 93.3% 90.1% 85.9% 80.7% 74.5% 67.3% 59.4% 51.1% 42.8% _________________________________________________________________ SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS - 12:22AM NEP DEMOGRAPHIC CATEGORIES INCREMENTAL KERRY (BUSH) VOTE SHARES AND SELECTED WEIGHTS THIRD PARTY (OTHER) VOTE SHARES HELD CONSTANT ADJUSTED DEMOGRAPHIC GENDER Kerry/ Male Weight Kerry Bush Other Fem 44.0% 45.0% 46.0% 47.0% 48.0% 49.6% 50.0% Male..46.4% 49.6% 49.4% 1.0% 51.0% 47.8% 48.2% 48.7% 49.1% 49.6% 50.4% 50.5% Fem...53.6% 55.0% 44.0% 1.0% 52.0% 48.3% 48.8% 49.2% 49.7% 50.1% 50.9% 51.1% 53.0% 48.8% 49.3% 49.8% 50.2% 50.7% 51.4% 51.6% 52.49% 46.51% 1.00% 54.0% 49.4% 49.8% 50.3% 50.8% 51.2% 52.0% 52.1% 66.01 58.48 1.26 55.0% 49.9% 50.4% 50.8% 51.3% 51.8% 52.49% 52.7% PARTY ID Weight Kerry/ Dem Weight Kerry Bush Other Dem 89.0% 90.0% 91.0% 92.0% 93.0% 94.0% 95.0% Dem 38.0% 92.0% 7.0% 1.0% 35.0% 48.9% 49.3% 49.6% 50.0% 50.3% 50.7% 51.0% Rep 35.0% 8.0% 91.0% 1.0% 36.0% 49.7% 50.1% 50.5% 50.8% 51.2% 51.5% 51.9% Ind 27.0% 54.6% 44.4% 1.0% 37.0% 50.6% 50.9% 51.3% 51.7% 52.0% 52.4% 52.8% 38.0% 51.4% 51.7% 52.1% 52.50% 52.9% 53.3% 53.6% 52.50% 46.50% 1.00% 39.0% 52.2% 52.6% 53.0% 53.3% 53.7% 54.1% 54.5% 66.02 58.47 1.26 40.0% 53.0% 53.4% 53.8% 54.2% 54.6% 55.0% 55.4% VOTED IN 2000 Weights adjusted to reflect 2000 vote Assume 98% Turnout of 2000 voters Kerry/ DNV Weight Kerry Bush Other Gore 54.0% 55.0% 56.0% 57.0% 58.0% 59.0% 60.0% DNV 21.49% 57% 41% 2% 89.0% 51.2% 51.4% 51.6% 51.8% 52.0% 52.2% 52.4% Gore 38.23% 91% 8% 1% 90.0% 51.5% 51.8% 52.0% 52.2% 52.4% 52.6% 52.8% Bush 37.83% 10% 90% 0% 91.0% 51.9% 52.1% 52.4% 52.57% 52.8% 53.0% 53.2% Other 2.46% 71% 21% 8% 92.0% 52.3% 52.5% 52.7% 53.0% 53.2% 53.4% 53.6% 93.0% 52.7% 52.9% 53.1% 53.3% 53.5% 53.8% 54.0% 52.57% 46.43% 1.01% 94.0% 53.1% 53.3% 53.5% 53.7% 53.9% 54.1% 54.4% 66.10 58.38 1.27 95.0% 53.5% 53.7% 53.9% 54.1% 54.3% 54.5% 54.7% REGION Kerry/ East Weight Kerry Bush Other MidW 56.0% 57.0% 58.0% 59.0% 60.0% 61.0% 62.0% East 22% 59% 40% 1% 48.0% 50.8% 51.0% 51.3% 51.5% 51.7% 51.9% 52.1% Midw 26% 52% 47% 1% 49.0% 51.1% 51.3% 51.5% 51.7% 52.0% 52.2% 52.4% South 31% 46% 53% 1% 50.0% 51.3% 51.6% 51.8% 52.0% 52.2% 52.4% 52.7% West 21% 56% 43% 1% 51.0% 51.6% 51.8% 52.0% 52.3% 52.5% 52.7% 52.9% 52.0% 51.9% 52.1% 52.3% 52.52% 52.7% 53.0% 53.2% 52.52% 46.48% 1.00% 53.0% 52.1% 52.3% 52.6% 52.8% 53.0% 53.2% 53.4% 66.04 58.44 1.26 54.0% 52.4% 52.6% 52.8% 53.0% 53.3% 53.5% 53.7% EDUCATION Kerry/ HSG Weight Kerry Bush Other ColG 47.0% 49.0% 51.0% 52.0% 53.0% 54.0% 55.0% NoHS 4% 51% 48% 1% 46.0% 49.9% 50.3% 50.8% 51.0% 51.2% 51.4% 51.6% HSG 22% 53% 46% 1% 47.0% 50.1% 50.6% 51.0% 51.2% 51.5% 51.7% 51.9% Col 31% 50% 49% 1% 48.0% 50.4% 50.8% 51.3% 51.5% 51.7% 51.9% 52.2% ColG 26% 51% 48% 1% 49.0% 50.7% 51.1% 51.5% 51.8% 52.0% 52.2% 52.4% PostG 17% 59% 40% 1% 50.0% 50.9% 51.4% 51.8% 52.0% 52.2% 52.5% 52.7% 51.0% 51.2% 51.6% 52.1% 52.3% 52.49% 52.7% 52.9% 52.49% 46.51% 1.00% 52.0% 51.4% 51.9% 52.3% 52.5% 52.8% 53.0% 53.2% 66.00 58.48 1.26 53.0% 51.7% 52.1% 52.6% 52.8% 53.0% 53.2% 53.5% RACE AND GENDER Kerry/ Non-White Female Weight Kerry Bush Other WFem 75.0% 76.0% 77.0% 78.0% 79.0% 80.0% 81.0% WMale 36% 43% 56% 1% 46.0% 51.4% 51.5% 51.7% 51.8% 51.9% 52.0% 52.2% WFem 41% 48% 51% 1% 47.0% 51.8% 51.9% 52.1% 52.2% 52.3% 52.5% 52.6% NwMale10% 73% 26% 1% 48.0% 52.2% 52.3% 52.47% 52.6% 52.7% 52.9% 53.0% NwFem 13% 77% 22% 1% 49.0% 52.6% 52.8% 52.9% 53.0% 53.1% 53.3% 53.4% 50.0% 53.0% 53.2% 53.3% 53.4% 53.6% 53.7% 53.8% 52.47% 46.53% 1.00% 51.0% 53.4% 53.6% 53.7% 53.8% 54.0% 54.1% 54.2% 65.98 58.51 1.26 52.0% 53.9% 54.0% 54.1% 54.2% 54.4% 54.5% 54.6% Kerry/ 18-29 AGE...Weight Kerry Bush Other 30-44 54.0% 56.0% 58.0% 59.0% 60.0% 61.0% 62.0% 18-29 17% 60% 39% 1% 46.0% 50.2% 50.6% 50.9% 51.1% 51.3% 51.4% 51.6% 30-44 29% 50% 49% 1% 47.0% 50.5% 50.9% 51.2% 51.4% 51.6% 51.7% 51.9% 45-59 30% 54% 45% 1% 48.0% 50.8% 51.2% 51.5% 51.7% 51.8% 52.0% 52.2% 60+ 24% 48% 51% 1% 49.0% 51.1% 51.5% 51.8% 52.0% 52.1% 52.3% 52.5% 50.0% 51.4% 51.7% 52.1% 52.3% 52.42% 52.6% 52.8% 52.42% 46.58% 1.00% 51.0% 51.7% 52.0% 52.4% 52.5% 52.7% 52.9% 53.1% 65.91 58.57 1.26 52.0% 52.0% 52.3% 52.7% 52.8% 53.0% 53.2% 53.3% Kerry/ 30-50k INCOME Weight Kerry Bush Other 75-100 50.0% 51.0% 52.0% 53.0% 54.0% 55.0% 56.0% 0-15K 9% 67% 32% 1% 45.0% 51.1% 51.3% 51.6% 51.8% 52.0% 52.2% 52.4% 15-30 15% 61% 38% 1% 46.0% 51.3% 51.5% 51.7% 51.9% 52.1% 52.4% 52.6% 30-50 22% 54% 45% 1% 47.0% 51.4% 51.6% 51.8% 52.0% 52.3% 52.5% 52.7% 50-75 23% 47% 52% 1% 48.0% 51.5% 51.7% 52.0% 52.2% 52.4% 52.6% 52.8% 75-100 13% 49% 50% 1% 49.0% 51.6% 51.9% 52.1% 52.3% 52.52% 52.7% 53.0% 100-150 11% 48% 51% 1% 50.0% 51.8% 52.0% 52.2% 52.4% 52.7% 52.9% 53.1% 150-200 4% 45% 54% 1% 51.0% 51.9% 52.1% 52.3% 52.6% 52.8% 53.0% 53.2% 200+ 3% 40% 59% 1% 52.0% 52.0% 52.3% 52.5% 52.7% 52.9% 53.1% 53.4% 52.52% 46.48% 1.00% 66.04 58.44 1.26 IDEOLOGY Kerry/ Liberal Weight Kerry Bush Other Mod 85.0% 87.0% 89.0% 91.0% 92.0% 93.0% 94.0% Lib 22% 93% 6% 1% 54.0% 48.9% 49.4% 49.8% 50.3% 50.5% 50.7% 50.9% Mod 45% 58% 41% 1% 55.0% 49.4% 49.8% 50.3% 50.7% 50.9% 51.2% 51.4% Con 33% 18% 81% 1% 56.0% 49.8% 50.3% 50.7% 51.2% 51.4% 51.6% 51.8% 57.0% 50.3% 50.7% 51.2% 51.6% 51.8% 52.1% 52.3% 52.50% 46.50% 1.00% 58.0% 50.7% 51.2% 51.6% 52.1% 52.3% 52.50% 52.7% 66.01 58.47 1.26 59.0% 51.2% 51.6% 52.1% 52.5% 52.7% 53.0% 53.2% RELIGION Kerry/ Catholic Weight Kerry Bush Other Prot 46.0% 48.0% 50.0% 52.0% 53.0% 54.0% 55.0% Prot 53% 44% 55% 1% 40.0% 48.8% 49.3% 49.8% 50.4% 50.6% 50.9% 51.2% Cath 27% 52% 47% 1% 41.0% 49.3% 49.8% 50.4% 50.9% 51.2% 51.4% 51.7% Jewish 3% 79% 20% 1% 42.0% 49.8% 50.4% 50.9% 51.4% 51.7% 52.0% 52.2% Other 7% 78% 21% 1% 43.0% 50.3% 50.9% 51.4% 52.0% 52.2% 52.5% 52.8% None 10% 73% 26% 1% 44.0% 50.9% 51.4% 52.0% 52.49% 52.8% 53.0% 53.3% 45.0% 51.4% 51.9% 52.5% 53.0% 53.3% 53.6% 53.8% 52.49% 46.51% 1.00% 46.0% 51.9% 52.5% 53.0% 53.6% 53.8% 54.1% 54.4% 66.00 58.48 1.26 47.0% 52.5% 53.0% 53.5% 54.1% 54.4% 54.6% 54.9% MILITARY Kerry/ No Weight Kerry Bush Other Yes 50.0% 51.0% 52.0% 53.0% 54.0% 55.0% 56.0% Yes 18% 46% 53% 1% 43.0% 48.7% 49.6% 50.4% 51.2% 52.0% 52.8% 53.7% No 82% 54% 45% 1% 44.0% 48.9% 49.7% 50.6% 51.4% 52.2% 53.0% 53.8% 45.0% 49.1% 49.9% 50.7% 51.6% 52.4% 53.2% 54.0% 52.56% 46.44% 1.00% 46.0% 49.3% 50.1% 50.9% 51.7% 52.56% 53.4% 54.2% 66.09 58.39 1.26 47.0% 49.5% 50.3% 51.1% 51.9% 52.7% 53.6% 54.4% WHEN DECIDED Kerry/ Today Weight Kerry Bush Other Over30 52.0% 55.0% 58.0% 61.0% 64.0% 66.0% 69.0% Today 6% 66% 33% 1% 46.0% 48.5% 48.7% 48.9% 49.0% 49.2% 49.3% 49.5% 3days 3% 64% 35% 1% 47.0% 49.3% 49.5% 49.7% 49.8% 50.0% 50.1% 50.3% 7days 2% 61% 38% 1% 48.0% 50.1% 50.3% 50.4% 50.6% 50.8% 50.9% 51.1% 30days 10% 59% 40% 1% 49.0% 50.9% 51.1% 51.2% 51.4% 51.6% 51.7% 51.9% Over30 79% 50% 49% 1% 50.0% 51.7% 51.8% 52.0% 52.2% 52.4% 52.50% 52.7% 51.0% 52.5% 52.6% 52.8% 53.0% 53.2% 53.3% 53.5% 52.50% 46.50% 1.00% 52.0% 53.2% 53.4% 53.6% 53.8% 54.0% 54.1% 54.3% 66.01 58.47 1.26 53.0% 54.0% 54.2% 54.4% 54.6% 54.8% 54.9% 55.1% _________________________________________________________________ SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS - KERRY NATIONAL VOTE HOW VOTED IN 2000 DEMOGRAPHIC The scenarios are grouped by Kerry share of those who did not vote (DNV) in 2000 for a range of Kerry's share of returning Gore and Bush voters. Weights are adjusted to reflect the 2000 recorded vote and assume a 98% turnout of 2000 voters. SCENARIO ANALYSIS SUMMARY 2000 voters for Kerry: Case Gore Bush Low 89% 8% Base 91% 10% (Nov.3, 12:22am NEP) High 93% 12% Kerry National Vote: (DNV to Kerry) DNV Low Base High 54% 50.4 51.93 53.4 (Nov.3, 2:04pm Final NEP) 57% 51.0 52.57 54.1 (Nov.3, 12:22am) 59% 51.5 53.00 54.5 (Nov.2, 7:30pm) _________________________________________________________________ VOTED IN 2000 (51% DNV to Kerry) DNV Bush voters for Kerry Weight Kerry Bush Other 51% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% Gore Kerry vote share DNV 21.49% 51% 47% 2% 85.0% 46.7% 47.5% 48.2% 49.0% 49.7% 50.5% 51.3% Gore 38.23% 91% 8% 1% 87.0% 47.5% 48.2% 49.0% 49.8% 50.5% 51.3% 52.0% Bush 37.83% 10% 90% 0% 89.0% 48.2% 49.0% 49.8% 50.5% 51.3% 52.0% 52.8% Other 2.45% 71% 21% 8% 91.0% 49.0% 49.8% 50.5% 51.28% 52.0% 52.8% 53.6% 93.0% 49.8% 50.5% 51.3% 52.0% 52.8% 53.6% 54.3% Share 100.0% 51.28% 47.72% 1.00% 95.0% 50.5% 51.3% 52.1% 52.8% 53.6% 54.3% 55.1% Votes 125.74 64.48 60.00 1.26 97.0% 51.3% 52.1% 52.8% 53.6% 54.3% 55.1% 55.8% VOTED IN 2000 (54% DNV to Kerry) DNV Bush voters for Kerry Weight Kerry Bush Other 54% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% Gore Kerry vote share DNV 21.49% 54% 44% 2% 85.0% 47.4% 48.1% 48.9% 49.6% 50.4% 51.1% 51.9% Gore 38.23% 91% 8% 1% 87.0% 48.1% 48.9% 49.6% 50.4% 51.2% 51.9% 52.7% Bush 37.83% 10% 90% 0% 89.0% 48.9% 49.6% 50.4% 51.2% 51.9% 52.7% 53.4% Other 2.45% 71% 21% 8% 91.0% 49.7% 50.4% 51.2% 51.93% 52.7% 53.4% 54.2% 93.0% 50.4% 51.2% 51.9% 52.7% 53.4% 54.2% 55.0% Share 100.0% 51.93% 47.07% 1.00% 95.0% 51.2% 51.9% 52.7% 53.5% 54.2% 55.0% 55.7% Votes 125.74 65.29 59.19 1.26 97.0% 52.0% 52.7% 53.5% 54.2% 55.0% 55.7% 56.5% VOTED IN 2000 (57% DNV to Kerry) DNV Bush voters for Kerry Weight Kerry Bush Other 57% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% Gore Kerry vote share DNV 21.49% 57% 41% 2% 85.0% 48.0% 48.8% 49.5% 50.3% 51.0% 51.8% 52.5% Gore 38.23% 91% 8% 1% 87.0% 48.8% 49.5% 50.3% 51.0% 51.8% 52.6% 53.3% Bush 37.83% 10% 90% 0% 89.0% 49.5% 50.3% 51.0% 51.8% 52.6% 53.3% 54.1% Other 2.45% 71% 21% 8% 91.0% 50.3% 51.1% 51.8% 52.57% 53.3% 54.1% 54.8% 93.0% 51.1% 51.8% 52.6% 53.3% 54.1% 54.8% 55.6% Share 100.0% 52.57% 46.43% 1.00% 95.0% 51.8% 52.6% 53.3% 54.1% 54.9% 55.6% 56.4% Votes 125.74 66.10 58.38 1.26 97.0% 52.6% 53.4% 54.1% 54.9% 55.6% 56.4% 57.1% VOTED IN 2000 (59% DNV to Kerry) DNV Bush voters for Kerry Weight Kerry Bush Other 59% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% Gore Kerry vote share DNV 21.49% 59% 39% 2% 85.0% 48.4% 49.2% 50.0% 50.7% 51.5% 52.2% 53.0% Gore 38.23% 91% 8% 1% 87.0% 49.2% 50.0% 50.7% 51.5% 52.2% 53.0% 53.7% Bush 37.83% 10% 90% 0% 89.0% 50.0% 50.7% 51.5% 52.2% 53.0% 53.7% 54.5% Other 2.45% 71% 21% 8% 91.0% 50.7% 51.5% 52.2% 53.00% 53.8% 54.5% 55.3% 93.0% 51.5% 52.3% 53.0% 53.8% 54.5% 55.3% 56.0% Share 100.0% 53.00% 46.00% 1.00% 95.0% 52.3% 53.0% 53.8% 54.5% 55.3% 56.0% 56.8% Votes 125.74 66.64 57.84 1.26 97.0% 53.0% 53.8% 54.5% 55.3% 56.1% 56.8% 57.6% VOTED IN 2000 (61% DNV to Kerry) DNV Bush voters for Kerry Weight Kerry Bush Other 61% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% Gore Kerry vote share DNV 21.49% 61% 37% 2% 85.0% 48.9% 49.6% 50.4% 51.1% 51.9% 52.6% 53.4% Gore 38.23% 91% 8% 1% 87.0% 49.6% 50.4% 51.1% 51.9% 52.7% 53.4% 54.2% Bush 37.83% 10% 90% 0% 89.0% 50.4% 51.2% 51.9% 52.7% 53.4% 54.2% 54.9% Other 2.45% 71% 21% 8% 91.0% 51.2% 51.9% 52.7% 53.43% 54.2% 54.9% 55.7% 93.0% 51.9% 52.7% 53.4% 54.2% 55.0% 55.7% 56.5% Share 100.0% 53.43% 45.57% 1.00% 95.0% 52.7% 53.4% 54.2% 55.0% 55.7% 56.5% 57.2% Votes 125.74 67.18 57.30 1.26 97.0% 53.5% 54.2% 55.0% 55.7% 56.5% 57.2% 58.0%
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